Friday, February 25, 2022
Near End of the Month, So January 2022 Inflation Numbers and Other Stuff.
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Retail Trade Report for January-2022
The Census Bureau released the advance data for January Retail. Woohoo, it was up 3.8% AFTER a downward revision of last month by -2.5%. (Which wasn't the only revision.)
This was last month's graph...
Frankly, I don't understand the hoopla surrounding this report. Of course, I am just an ignorant hillbilly and know nothing of these matters.
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Producer Price Index for January 2022
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in December 2021 and 0.9 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent for the 12 months ended January 2022.
In January, the index for final demand services rose 0.7 percent, and prices for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent.
Thursday, February 10, 2022
Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, January 2022
With this release comes a variety of other numbers...
I am at the 5.7% annual rate...
Friday, January 28, 2022
Near End of the Month, So December 2021 Inflation Numbers and Other Stuff.
Thursday, January 27, 2022
2021 GDP Results and First Look at 4th Quarter 2021
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent.
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Real GDP increased 5.7 percent in 2021 (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020 (table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased
All of which sounds really good and seems to be "great" news. Being the contrarian, I seem to find things that trouble me. The inventories and correlation to consumer spending. They look stellar on the annual basis, but 4th quarter seems troubling to me.
The inventory numbers made up about 73% of the 4th quarter numbers. The difference being a chabe for the 6.9% annualized to something akin to 1.8% annualized. Which even at that lower number was better than the meager 0.48% rise in the goods category sans services and 3.2% annualized with services. Rah! Rah!
The report does make note of certain durable goods making up the increases in inventory, yet overall consumer spending in this category is barely making gains. That is not surprising, given the past year, but not sure how consumer spending will react going forward.
Setting aside the inventories and intellectual property products... the Gross private domestic investment category slid -1.2% annualized.
Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.2% annualized, but on the back of services with a respectable 4.8% annualized rise. Without the services... 0.36% annualized.
My small brain cannot find all that "wonderful" news, but I may be overthinking it, considering my small brain.
To summarize, the consumer spending, which is the driver of the economy, is slowing considerably; the private sector sans the aforementioned... is slowing.
So if inventory is rising dramatically, then one of the following would seem the likely cause...
- The supply chain snarls are finally becoming unsnarled
- Suppliers have increased production
- Consumers are slowing their purchases
Not real sure how this can be seen in such a positive light, especially with the doldrums of winter upon us, the negative outlook of the consumers, etc. Unless the latter weighs on inflation and slows it down a bit.
Friday, January 21, 2022
Maybe Time for a Hoarding Update and Some General Trivia!
I should start by pointing out that I am starting this blog on 1-16-2022. At this time, I am sitting here, awaiting the big storm Izzy to descend upon us. No worries, as I have no need to leave the house until 1-31-22 and maybe not then, as I have become quite the hoarder. The only issue would be a prolonged loss of power, which should not be such a worry in my community.
1-19... There are apparently, a number of storms likely to cycle through the region over the next couple of weeks, so just need to hunker down. Have ordered the covid tests, but not sure if we will use them or need them anytime soon. Of course, it sounds like we won't get them anytime soon as well.
1-21... Checking the 2 week weather outlook and it seems to indicate prolonged colder than normal temps, with bouts of snowfall. Nothing is set in stone, so I'll keep checking. Typically order groceries for pickup on Wednesday's and Thursdays.
This may seem odd, considering the first paragraph, but while I have stored a good amount of groceries and can claim starvation is not in the cards... there are certain food groups that don't store well over time. Such as veggies, fruits, etc.
On one social websites I frequent, the following was posted... "there is a pasta shortage, as shipments from Italy cannot get into U.S. ports." This reminded me of the BBC show from the 50s, on an April Fool's broadcast... about spaghetti trees.
That is not to say we do not import some pasta from Italy, but it would be specialty brands, as most pasta is made in the USA. It was good for a laugh at least.
There are many nuggets of humor to be found on these websites, as long as you look for the humor, instead of looking to criticize. Shaking your head in disbelief and then having a good laugh is probably the best medicine.
A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XVI
Really not seeing any major shifts, although the Minnesota margin widened ever so slightly. Still too difficult to read. The unadjusted poll...
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The BLS has released the April, 2024 Producer Price Index Report . ( historical releases ) The Producer Price Index for final demand rose...
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On to the Real Earnings . There seems to be a downward trend, across the board, even with downward revisions of previous months data. An in...
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First up is the BLS Report for CPI ...( historical releases ) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percen...