Weather or Not! Why Not!

3 times this past week, the notion of a tropical storm or hurricane has popped up on a certain weather forecasting model. It was the only model to indicate this potential and subsequent models did not reflect any such movements.

For the record this one and only model indicated a storm likely moving across the Florida panhandle on the 24th. A day later... nothing. A couple of days later, the indication was a storm likely moving over New Orleans on the 29th. Then nothing. Today it shows a strong disturbance just south of Cuba. Tomorrow will likely show nothing. Only one model has shown anything... all others nothing.

I am NOT forecasting a hurricane or a tropical storm in the near future... or even one at all. My point is about how 50% of the USA petroleum refining capacity is along the Gulf Coast, as well as LNG terminals.

Current inventories of crude and the various petroleum products are below the seasonal range of normal inventory. A gander at the weekly report from the EIA.gov quickly indicates the dilemma we are in. To clarify what below the seasonal range actually means... lowest of the past 5 years, based on this time of year.

We've had massive storms in the past, but were able to weather the storm, due to sufficient inventories. It would not take much of a storm to skyrocket prices from current levels. The potential for a tropical storm along the Gulf Coast, is not an unreasonable forecast for sometime this summer. 

That is my point, weather you like it or not. 

Maybe Time for a Hoarding Update and Some General Trivia!

I should start by pointing out that I am starting this blog on 1-16-2022. At this time, I am sitting here, awaiting the big storm Izzy to descend upon us. No worries, as I have no need to leave the house until 1-31-22 and maybe not then, as I have become quite the hoarder. The only issue would be a prolonged loss of power, which should not be such a worry in my community.

1-19... There are apparently, a number of storms likely to cycle through the region over the next couple of weeks, so just need to hunker down. Have ordered the covid tests, but not sure if we will use them or need them anytime soon. Of course, it sounds like we won't get them anytime soon as well. 

1-21... Checking the 2 week weather outlook and it seems to indicate prolonged colder than normal temps, with bouts of snowfall. Nothing is set in stone, so I'll keep checking. Typically order groceries for pickup on Wednesday's and Thursdays. 

This may seem odd, considering the first paragraph, but while I have stored a good amount of groceries and can claim starvation is not in the cards... there are certain food groups that don't store well over time. Such as veggies, fruits, etc. 

On one social websites I frequent, the following was posted... "there is a pasta shortage, as shipments from Italy cannot get into U.S. ports." This reminded me of the BBC show from the 50s, on an April Fool's broadcast... about spaghetti trees.

That is not to say we do not import some pasta from Italy, but it would be specialty brands, as most pasta is made in the USA. It was good for a laugh at least.

There are many nuggets of humor to be found on these websites, as long as you look for the humor, instead of looking to criticize. Shaking your head in disbelief and then having a good laugh is probably the best medicine.