A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII

It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.

The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error. 

The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.

The general election is 231 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 312 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 10EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.6%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Still a lot of time to go and many more polls to digest. UGH!!

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI

I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.

The national polls continue to be tight, with a slight edge to republicans. Late in 2016, it was a 4 point lead for Clinton and resulted in a 2 point lead in actual votes. 2020 saw a significant lead of about 9 points for Biden, which ended with a 4.5 point vote lead for Biden.

Of course the polls were wrong in each case. Polls seem to vary in accuracy from state to state. It could be that down ballots affected the actual vote vs polls. A dem voter in a deep red state may have seen nothing of significance on the down ballot and opted to avoid voting. 

Similarly, a weak down ballot might have discourage a dem voter from going to the polls, when they felt assured of victory for their candidate.

There are many reasons for polls not fully reflecting the actual votes. Some voter2 might be hesitant to provide their real intentions, due to a number of factors.

In any case, some states polls have been reflective of eventual outcomes. The VAR (variance) in the above chart indicates the difference between polls and outcomes. Those numbers hold largely true back to the 2000 election.

Arizona would be an example of a state that has very accurate polls... historically. Why? I don't know. The actual poll numbers might not reflect the actual vote tally, BUT the variance is undeniable. Arizona is almost always in the very accurate range, with the variance near zero.

Wisconsin is on the other end of the spectrum, with a red 6.5% variance. Meaning the margin of eventual tally is favorable to republicans by 6.5%. Thus a poll lead of 4.4% for republicans... becomes a very hard lean in favor of republicans.

When all is said and done, the current projected EV tally is REP-293, DEM-216, and TU-29, with the TUs favoring the REP.

There are 248 days until judgement day. A lot can change in that length of time... AND a lot needs to change!

Once again, I will attempt to avoid futher commenting until something does change.

Wish me luck!

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part X

The polls have altered the landscape, ever so slightly. While there have been several polls, none really changed much, except for Nevada, back on January 11.

The average in Nevada for Republican candidate remained about the same, there was erosion on the Democrat side. As a result, the state is now has a very slight Republican tendency.

As such the EVs are 293(R); 216(D); and 29(TU).

There are 261 days until the election. I will take another break from this spectacle and check things out in a couple of weeks. If no changes, then no commentary. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part IX

I previously posted that unless the EVs changed, I would attempt to avoid posting. They have changed.

The main change was Pennsylvania easing a bit from the (R) candidate. Simply put... the polls indicate a slight edge to DEM, but historically has under-reported REP votes in general elections, by 3%. Even with that latter adjustment, the result falls into the margin of error. 

Possibly some further shifting in weeks ahead, although the next polls might swing in the other direction.

IF the toss-ups are indeed DEM, then the issue would still be another 19 EVs for a DEM victory. That is possible, but quite an uphill battle, imho. However, the voting public can be quite fickle.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VIII

Onward and upward, or something akin to that adage.

As I delve further into the 2024 election process, I should briefly review previous posts, where I alluded to polls being wrong, but consistently wrong in the 2016 and 2020 General Elections. Further review... indicated those tendencies back to the 2000 election. 

Why, I don't know, but gave some ideas. 

It should be noted that evaluation of previous general election polling trends, really did not get reviewed until the party nomination was largely settled. More into Spring until the general election. The assumption of the 2024 nominations being settled, is a bit of fantasy. 

Currently, it would be hard to disagree with the following chart, as to which states are almost certain to fall into one column, which leaves 188 toss-ups. I allowed for Maine and Nebraska, due to split electoral voting system.

Speaking of Maine and Nebraska, it is likely that the single votes in the toss-up column will go blue or red. Thus the R-149 and D-203.

The variance chart...

Texas seems to be in the toss-up column, although not sure why. This is somewhat due to the tendency of polls to slightly understate the democrat votes. Still, the state falls into republican territory quite comfortably. Now it is R-189 and D-203.

Florida is next up and the polls for the state, tend to slightly overstate the democrat support, while understating the republican support. Thus Florida with its 30 EVs moves the needle to R-219 and D-203.

Virginia (13) keeps getting into the toss-up category. It puzzles me as to why, as it will very likely vote the democrat candidate and has a stellar polling v result score, imo. Thus R-219 and D-216.

I will lump Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) together, as they both have been consistently correct in polling matching outcomes. Polls seem to indicate a fairly strong republican tendency, which translates to R-246 and D-216.

Might as well get Wisconsin (10) out of the way. Of all the states with polling discrepancies, compared to results... Wisconsin is very high on the list, with a 6.5 variance, which tends to favor republicans. Polling greatly underestimates republican support and overestimates democrat support, when compared to general election results. Having stated that, the narrow polling margin, which is slightly in favor of Trump, indicates R-256 and D-216.

That leaves 66 electoral votes to decide the election. 

I haven't even gotten to North Carolina (16), which appears almost certain to fall into the R column. Now it is R-272 and D-216.

Now for Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19). Two states, which closely follow Wisconsin in under-reporting republican support and overstating democrat support. That both states are indicating a republican advantage, before looking at previous polling errors, it seems appropriate to throw them into the repubican slot. R-306 and D-216.

Nevada you say. Nevada (6) is currently leaning R, but previous history, indicates under-reporting democrat support. Still a slight edge for R, but very slight. Now it is R-306, D-216, and T-6.

Then there is the curious case of Minnesota (10), which has historically been polled with Rs being underestimated, and Ds being overestimated, compared to general election. That polling is currently very narrow, which could possibly be a problem for Dems.

R-306, D-216, and T-16.

There is a lot of time left to change things. Of course, there is always time to change things... until time runs out. 

I will resist the temptation to post frequently, but if those EVs change, then I might jump in.  

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VII

Onward I go into the endless fun of politics.

As stated previously, yes the polls are wrong, but in what way? Oddly, the polls that were wrong, were consistently wrong in both 2016 and 2020.

As can be noted, Arizona and Virgina were downright accurate. Georgia, New York and Washington near perfect, each with a very slight variance benefitting one party.

Some states had very poor polls to results variance. This could be attributable to a few factors...

• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, in a heavily republican state?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, in a heavily democrat state?
• Why would a democrat waste time on voting for a democrat candidate, when victory is assured?
• Why would a republican waste time on voting for a republican candidate, when victory is assured?
• Perhaps the polling does not reflect the results, due to individuals hiding their true opinions, due to fear.

In any case, where polls have been wrong, they were equally wrong in both elections.

Wisconsin was a clear Clinton victory, until it wasn't. Wisconsin was an even more clear Biden victory, but it was downright scary close.

That same scenario played out in Pennsylvania and to some extent Michigan.

Naturally, some states are already decided, in my opinion. It is the so called battleground states that are intriquing.

When taking that information and reviewing the current polling composite...

Currently, the Locks and those Leaning, favor the Republican Candidate. The Democrat Candidate needs to hold Virginia, Minnesota and Colorado. Nevada(6) could be swung around, as well as Pennsylvania(19) and possibly Michigan(15), although not so favorable at this point.

That still leaves the need for one more state and it is hard to make a case for any, based on past polling discrepancies.

That is why so much concern is emanating from the Democrat party.

As to Colorado and the 14th amendment. I guess the courts will decide, but whether Trump is on the ballot or not, Colorado's 10 EVs are still Blue. Just as they would, for several other states attempting to jump on the bandwagon. Same could be said for Red states.

Keeping someone of the primary ballot does not mean keeping them off the general election ballot.

Makes for great theater and the clickbait media coverage is in full swing.

Whether any of it amounts to anything, is yet to be seen.

Merry Christmas!

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part VI

Here we go...

Trump currently holds a 44.9% to 42.7% lead in the polls. Of course the polls are always wrong, even though Biden led from the start in 2020, although the start was in spring of that year... so a bit to go.

The current problem is Biden is not only trailing in nationwide polling, but in those "toss-up" states. A long haul at the moment, imho.

This is the current outlook, when adjusting for polling discrepancies in the last two elections. 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part V

Here is another stab at the 2024 election. Trump appears to be ahead with polling numbers of 44.1%. compared to Biden's 43.3%. Very tight indeed, until polling of individual states relative to electoral votes is considered.

Took a hard look at the virtual locks, in regards to electoral votes, which resulted with Biden having 212 electoral votes locked up, and Trump with 149.

When I say "locked up", I am referring to places like California, Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, etc. It should be obvious whether they are blue or red. So stencil them in.

However, in 2024, there are some hard leans, as well.

Florida has Trump with a 9 point lead in the polls. Consider where the polls were in 2016 and 2020, the compare to results. That 9 point lead is significant. 

Again, Georgia was not really that far out of whack in the 2016 and 2020 polls, so the polls for this year having Trump with a 7 point lead... is quite meaningful.

That trend continues with the other "hard leans" listed, which results in Trump holding a 251~216 lead at this point.

So Trump just needs 19 of 71 remaining EVs. The opposite of that... Biden needs 54 of the remaing EVs.

Turning it around might be possible for Biden. 

However, Ukraine is still an issue on his watch, as well as that Middle East mess. Not seeing any upward lift being provided by those.

Economy, could be an issue, but not a lot of upward lift to be seen in this area. Sure, GDP was up 5.2% annualized, but don't forget a massive adjustment was just undertaken, by moving the numbers from 2012 dollars... to 2017 dollars. I alluded to this in a previous article.

On January 25, 2024, the BEA will likely report something in the 1.5%~2.0% annualized GDP growth. A lot of whining will take place about how the economy has gone from robust to anemic. Both are rather silly, but the resultant public opinion will not likely provide any huge boost for Biden.

That report will be followed about 3 weeks later, with the CPI report for January.

There is the inflation issue, of which will be largely cheered with both the November (DEC release) and December (JAN Release) data releases. Both of which will indicate a shallowing month to month rate of inflation.

However, both months will be a result of significantly lower gasoline prices, which is a seasonal norm. While making up a small percentage of consumer spending, the impact will be enough to bring month to month to zero and very likely negative. 

Once again, that news turns south with that February release of January's CPI data. Why? Those falling gasoline prices will be in the rear view mirror, and will be rising... We are getting into the heart of political silly season by then.

Frankly, rising gas prices will bring out the grocery prices are much higher crowd. It may well be, but this is about the attitude of voters... which won't be uplifting for the Biden campaign. Voters tend to remember things from days past, when they look at the grocery receipts and those numbers on the gasoline pump.

So not a lot of upside going forward, imho... for a Biden rebound.

Remember, the perception needs to change for Biden to reverse his current dismal ratings.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Four

Here I go again, delving into the rabbit hole of politics and polls.

The polls are wrong, as we all know. 

In 2016, Clinton was leading Trump in Wisconsin by 5 points, yet lost the state.

In 2020, Biden turned it around and led by 9 points in the polls, yet barely won the state by 20,000 votes or 0.6%

Granted Clinton only had a 2 point lead in Michigan, ahead of the election and lost by a slim margin. Once Again, Biden turned it around by having a 9 point margin, before finishing 2.8% ahead.

In 2016 Clinton had a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania, before losing that state. Again Bided turned it around with a 5 point lead, and winning by a slim 1.2%. A win is a win.

Florida was a deadlock and then the election of 2016 had Trump up by a slim 0.8%. Biden had a 3 point lead in Florida for 2020, yet Trump won by 3.3%.

Again in 2020, Biden had a 1 point lead in Texas, and it was widely assumed Texas was turning blue, except Trump won by 5.5%. It was tighter than 2016, so maybe turning blue, but not just yet.

Of course some states matched the poll numbers, such as Georgia. Almost nailed it in 2016 and 2020. 

Arizona was near that match for both years, as was Nevada and some others.

I suppose there are many reasons, such as 3rd party candidates, undecided voters, no shows, etc.

So having gone down the rabbit hole of reviewing the 2016 AND 2020 polls by state... I have come up with my own darn formula.

Yes, you saw that right. Trump has an edge at this point in time. Biden needs to focus on the slights and get them back in the fold...

Amazing that Minnesota is in the mix, but the indications are there. Then there are the marginals for Trump...

Biden needs to swing 27 Evs back from these. Any two will do, So along with Arizona, Minnesota and Nevada... 2 more.

Remember Arizona and Nevada seem to match polls with election results. So does Georgia.

Not that a swing back couldn't be accomplished, but most of these states have polled poorly for democrats, when compared to general election.

That took up way too much of my time, so that's it for now.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Three

In part two, I did a quick peak at current polls, based on just D v R.

Part 3 adds independents, etc., into the mix, although impact is just D and R...

Certainly, my methodology is not very scientific, but it would appear the Kennedy factor is actually harming Trump, more than Biden, although both trend lower with the inclusion of Kennedy.

At this point, Kennedy does not appear anywhere near getting even 1 electoral vote, but the potential to drag voters away from either major party's candidate is possible. However, as stated previously, the impact appears more on the Republican side, rather than the Democrat side. Most notably in Arizona, North Caroline, and Pennsylvania.

The one thing about polls, is people do tend to wish for one thing during poll season, but will vote their party at election time, if republican or democrat. 

Independents might switch back and forth, but generally vote for which major party candidate makes them feel better, or rather... less worse.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Two

A quick update on my latest review of polls and the presidential election.

A lot of time remaining and things could change. Currently, Biden is slipping in these states, with the exception of Virginia. 

Trump is also slipping in a few states, such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa, Florida and Arizona. He is easing up in Michigan and North Carolina. 

IF the election were today, Trump would get 302 EVs, to Biden's 236. The safety numbers seem to be 235 for Trump and 226 for Biden. 

All of this is assuming that Trump will be the eventual republican nominee and Biden will be the democrat nominee. 

Realistically, Trump would be disruptive to the election, if he were not the republican nominee, and there is no one ready among the democrats, to step in for Biden.

We are stuck with these as the selections, although 3rd party involvement could be a factor, as things stand now. RFK Jr. does seem to be polling some double digit numbers, which appear to be affecting both D and R in the polls. 

While it is sad to think these are the options, it is fun to watch the hysteria.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part One

I can't resist the notion of commenting on the 2024 Presidential election.

First off, I fully expect democrats to vote democrat and republicans to voter republican... regardless of the candidates nominated.

The independents seem to matter most... in these elections.

One thing that might be overlooked, is that polls the past two presidential elections were off. Everyone knows that, but the oddity... the polls seem to overstate the democrat candidate and understate the republican candidate. 

You can check, but this is across all states, as well as nationally.

Here is a sampling from 2020...

So when claiming polls are incorrect... you are right, but maybe not in the direction you would hope.

A bit of history...

In 2016, the election was up for grabs in so called battleground states. 

The most often mentioned states, were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That would be rightfully so, as they were supposed to be blue, yet somehow turned red, along with their 46 Evs. If they had been flipped, then Clinton would have been elected.

Those 3 were supposed to be safe states, yet became "battleground" as the 2016 election approached. Michigan and Pennsylvania last voted republican in 1988. Wisconsin in 1984.

A mere 77,736 combined votes was the difference in that election.

On to 2020...

The surprises here were Georgia (16); Arizona (11). Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flipped back to Blue. 72 electoral votes in those 5 states. 22,236 votes in Georgia and Arizona, then add in Michigan's 154,181; Pennsylvania's 82,166 and Wisconsin's 20,682 for a total of 279,265.

Georgia was reliably republican since 1996. Now they are in the battleground group as well.

Of note, Wisconsin's 20,682; Arizona's 10,457; Georgia's 11,779, would have really knotted up things if voting the other way. 269~269. That would have been interesting. 42,918 voters decided the presidential election.

Now for 2024...

I'm keeping the same set of battleground states, although why states such as Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia keep cropping up, remain a mystery.

Obviously, this is based on current state polling, where available. I deem Colorado and Virginia as being blue, without further research. Ohio and Iowa are certainly Red, without further research. 

Trump leads in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin... but is within the margin of error.

Trump leads in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina... above all margins of error.

While the Michigan numbers seem to indicate a wide margin in favor of Trump, I would question that... based on recent events. Sure, a certain group is screaming at Biden, but favoring Trump in a meaningless poll, may not translate to the voting booth. The potential does exist of that group staying home on election day. They may be upset with Biden, but I refuse to believe they would vote for Trump.

Basically, 46 EVs are trending towards Trump, but within that statistical margin of error. That puts Trump currently polling 263 Evs outright, versus 229 for Biden.

This is what has the Democrats running scared and also... keeping Trump in the race. 

What is peculiar, is when Haley is thrown into a head to head match up, those within margin states becomes much wider. The Trump camp, will not like that, but the devil is in the details. Yet, Trump crushes Haley in primaries.

It would appear to this completely untrained eye, that Democrats desperately need Trump to be the Republican nominee. The Trumpers are clearly more interested in Trump being president, than a republican being president.

I guess you could say the democrats and trumpers are united in discouraging any other republican candidate. 

Of course, the republicans are united in removing Biden and... it should be noted, that certain democrats are kinda wishing and hoping Biden would step aside.

(See... it is not all divisive politics!) 😉

Of course, things might improve and the storm weathered. Which is what it boils down to, as there is NO ONE in the democrat wings that can realistically step up. 

You know its not Harris, and you might be delusional... if you think Newsom.

My blurb from March still largely holds true.