Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, January Report.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).
Cutting through the malarkey...
After revising the November numbers down by -0.4%, and December numbers downward by -1.4%, we still end up with January sales down by -0.8%, from December. With inflation for the past 12 months at 3.1%, sales were only up +0.6%.
Looking at the average monthly sales (adjusted for inflation) since March, 2021... is provided in this graph.
Even better is this inflation adjusted graph starting in February, 2020.
Once past the initial vaccine rollout, coupled with massive stimulus checks, it quickly petered out, then rising into early 2022, then early 2023 saw a slow and steady decline.
As for the data in the report, there was a striking difference between adjusted and unadjusted numbers.
The unadjusted numbers were across the board for monthly sales, with adjusted showing only a very few instances of sales increases... with neither being inflation adjusted.
When checking individual categories for adjusted numbers, and factoring inflation... only 3 indicated any improvement.
- Furniture and home furnishings
- Grocery stores (just barely)
- Food services and drinking places.
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