A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XI

I said I would not post another election article, unless there were changes. I guess I lied.

The national polls continue to be tight, with a slight edge to republicans. Late in 2016, it was a 4 point lead for Clinton and resulted in a 2 point lead in actual votes. 2020 saw a significant lead of about 9 points for Biden, which ended with a 4.5 point vote lead for Biden.

Of course the polls were wrong in each case. Polls seem to vary in accuracy from state to state. It could be that down ballots affected the actual vote vs polls. A dem voter in a deep red state may have seen nothing of significance on the down ballot and opted to avoid voting. 

Similarly, a weak down ballot might have discourage a dem voter from going to the polls, when they felt assured of victory for their candidate.

There are many reasons for polls not fully reflecting the actual votes. Some voter2 might be hesitant to provide their real intentions, due to a number of factors.

In any case, some states polls have been reflective of eventual outcomes. The VAR (variance) in the above chart indicates the difference between polls and outcomes. Those numbers hold largely true back to the 2000 election.

Arizona would be an example of a state that has very accurate polls... historically. Why? I don't know. The actual poll numbers might not reflect the actual vote tally, BUT the variance is undeniable. Arizona is almost always in the very accurate range, with the variance near zero.

Wisconsin is on the other end of the spectrum, with a red 6.5% variance. Meaning the margin of eventual tally is favorable to republicans by 6.5%. Thus a poll lead of 4.4% for republicans... becomes a very hard lean in favor of republicans.

When all is said and done, the current projected EV tally is REP-293, DEM-216, and TU-29, with the TUs favoring the REP.

There are 248 days until judgement day. A lot can change in that length of time... AND a lot needs to change!

Once again, I will attempt to avoid futher commenting until something does change.

Wish me luck!