BLS Data Dump. CPI - March 12th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases) 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 2.3 percent over the month, as all of its component indexes increased. The food index was unchanged in February, as was the food at home index. The food away from home index rose 0.1 percent over the month.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The February number continues the 2023 1st quarter upward swing.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, albeit not as high as the CPI-U.

That is 2.5% annual, with another sharp 0.4% increase for February. The reason last month was the medical category, but is more evenly spread for this month. My worse fear being that my personal rate is edging up towards the CPI-U rate, which seems mired in a narrow range.

The R-CPI-E did ease from last month's annual of 3.5% to this month's annual of 3.4%. The month to month was still at +0.6%, but is more of a rounding issue. Last month was +0.635% and this month at +0.554%.

Across the board resulted in this picture...

As for Real Earnings.

Not such a good report, as indicated by this graph...

While the downward spike of 3¢ per hour might not seem large, it follows downward revisions in two previous months. Revisions are a normal part of the process, but a troubling trend is frequency of downward revisions in previous month's data. This tends to enhance the belief of manipulation in an election year.

This follows the pattern of jobs, GDP, etc. Not a real confidence builder, imo.