A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 20th Edition

Contrary to reports, Biden could still possibly win in November, although his paths to success... are limited.

My own inexpert analysis, indicates a slight narrowing of national polls to +0.3 points. 538 has the Trump lead widening to +3.2 points from last week's +1.9. Interestingly, the Trump increase seems to be at the expense of Kennedy. This may be due to changing polling methods.

Generally, polls do nationwide, with a full slate of candidates, then extrapolate the data to meet the state specific. However, with the focus on "battleground" states, many polls are becoming state specific. Therefore, the state specific poll will match with state ballot. In many of the "battleground" states, Kennedy is not on the ballot, therefore, is not on the poll. 

In any case, Kennedy's polling has slipped from the usual 9.5%~10.5%, into the 8.6% range. That falloff, does match the Trump increase.

As for the nonsense of the democrats putting Kennedy on their ticket and easily beating Trump... that is overlooking the animosity of the dems regarding Kennedy. It would be a toss-up as to which they dislike more... Trump or Kennedy.

As stated, not much real change in the national numbers. For the state level...

Again, not much movement. At this point, Trump has the edge on Electoral votes. However, the Kennedy conundrum, still persists.

The states highlighted in yellow have given ballot access to Kennedy. So the question remains... if Kennedy is not on the ballot, which candidate will they then choose... or leave the ballot blanks.

Even with this conundrum, the edge goes to Trump, at 263~197. Several states, now leaning favorably to Trump, could ease back into toss-up, if Kennedy does not make the ballot... in those states.

It's fun to watch, and who knows that will happen this upcoming week. I might have to start all over from scratch.