Another Look at C.O.L.A.

 

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Back in August I stated... somewhere between 8.6% ~ 9.0%. Clearly, a revision has taken place. Largely due to the continued drop in gasoline. 

If you remember the July CPI report, it stated the -7.7% gasoline number held off all the price increases in everything else. August is over and I am betting the August CPI will be -10% for gasoline. 

Of course, the C.O.L.A. is based on CPI-W, which slipped -0.1% in July and was 9.1% over the year.  -10% in gasoline would in theory... create an even lower number than -0.1%. Granted, the other stuff may be accelerating inflation wise, but I am not so sure about that. 

In any case, I suspect the CPI-W will be in the range as noted and the monthly change will be -0.3%~0.5%.

That would be stellar, except it is only gasoline and many other things like food, electricity, and heating bills are rising... going into that time of year. A lump of coal might be a welcome gift, come Christmas. (Hey, everything else has gone topsy turvy... why not?)

For the record, the C.O.L.A. announced in fall 1981 for 1982 year was 11.4%. The fall of 1982 announcement for year 1983 was 7.4%. This year's announcement should be between those two numbers.

And for the first time in a long while, there should not be much of an increase in Medicare B premiums. Mostly because we were over charged last year, but still, taking them at their word of that drug being half of last year's rise, and then they found out that drug was half the original price... we end up back to where we currently are for next year. That $60 we got over charged this year will be metered back to us this coming year. 

Graphs, Charts and Other Nonsense

 

From EIA

Seems to be a lot of Natural Gas...

talk and how it might become high priced this winter and even potential shortages in other countries. 

Current supplies are within the 5 year hi/lo and only down -5.1% from 5 year average. Not seeing a great deal of worry for the U.S. unless the global market prices overly tempt our U.S. suppliers. I doubt anyone is watching those movements and it will be too late. when it crops up. I'm sure it will be blamed on the supply chain snarls, staffing shortages, government regulations, etc. 

Data from EIA

I've read where some crude might be pulled from the SPR. Not quite sure as to why, as there are easier options to alleviate any crude shortage, such as drill baby drill. I've read where simply capping exports would be another method, but not sure that is ethical, as we import largely from Canada. However, halting the pass through of Canadian Crude via Gulf Refineries could be an option, for a short while. Of course, the refineries would howl impending disaster. It's hard to see how the supply chain can be blamed or staffing shortages, but I am not being overly creative in my thinking. 

COAL...

Much has been made about Coal prices shooting up, due to China now on a buying frenzy. Lo and behold, the U.S. is being left behind due to Supply Chain Disruptions and staffing shortages. 

The Trillion Dollar Coin...

Every time there is a crisis over the impending debt ceiling, the trillion dollar coin crops up. It may or may not be legal, but based on current spending projections... might need to consider multiple coins of that value.