What I am about to say, should be prefaced with this from the EIA...Oil and petroleum products explained. Scroll to this heading...Petroleum products produced from one 42-gallon barrel of oil input at U.S. refineries, 2020.
Note this is the end product average of multiple types and grades of petroleum. Some crude types are present a more efficient gasoline refinement, while others might lend themselves more easily to distillates, etc.
So the input mix, to provide the output demand, based on cost efficiency. As long as the output is matches demand, the world is a much friendlier place.
I suspect that the demand is not matching the input at this time, although I have no data to support that notion. The crude inventory might be 415M barrels... but what types of crude? And how does that match with the most efficient refining mix to provide the current demand?
Oddly, the gasoline inventory are almost spot on with inventories of this time in 2019. Crude inventories are -5.4% below this time in 2019, but the distillates are -13.6% below this time in 2019. Granted there is a big difference in import and export of distillates, but that has been a factor for several years.
While I am trying to wrap my head around all this, I should note the distillate production is below this time of 2019 levels and the exports are creeping above those 2019 levels.
So it would seem that more distillates must be produced, while maintaining gasoline stocks, which would then require more barrels of oil. See where this is headed? UP! I would not be surprised if crude prices won't below $90 until late summer. Which will also see a slide of national average gasoline drifting back to about $3.85. That's if... a recession doesn't break out.
Wasn't that joyous?!?
