So Far No Recession

It's been awhile since last post, as I have been very busy.

First up, the CPI report. My personal CPI was 2.4%, which matched the CPI-U. The CPI-W edged up to 2.2%, and the forecast of COLA jumped up quite a bit. 

Yep the forecast numbers have moved upward. Likely to continue upward movement, as the jump in crude prices, will likely shove the index up +0.05%. 

The PPI edged up and got some publicity, which was lacking the previous 2 down months. In any case, the PPI stands at 148.072, compared to last month's 147.884. It had peaked in February at 148.347.

As alluded to earlier... crude prices are jumping, with the likelihood of soon seeing a 10¢ a gallon rise at the pump. How much higher is dependent upon the Middle East, at this point.

The next report of interest, will be the advance retail sales. Projections have that number slipping a bit, which is not inflation adjusted. Therefore a bit lower than the projection.

Some Random Thoughts on 10-18-2022

Let's see if I can get through a post without any charts or graphs.

I had previously mentioned the likelihood of heating costs being a shock in late January or February. Maybe next month, as this current cold snap might be a wakeup call. Of course, the bills won't come before the election.

I hear rumblings of another SPR release. Seeing as the current release is scheduled to end at the end of the month and the election is 8 days later... I doubt it happens. Got to save some ammunition for 2024.

Uh oh... I feel a chart coming on...

Click to Enlarge

I do recall a couple of releases, such as 30M barrels for late 2021 and the 1M barrel per day release starting on May 1st and ending on October 31st. The latter indicating another 40M barrels to go and the ending number at 370M barrels. Somehow the numbers aren't adding up. When they say 14M, do they really mean 20M? About half of the SPR will have been drained in 2 years. It should all be gone by 2024. 

Somehow the crude oil inventory of the U.S. is 12M barrels higher than this time last year, with crude prices less than 1% higher. The gasoline inventory is 12M barrels lighter than this time last year, with gasoline prices 16.4% higher. So is it a crude problem or a refining problem? 

The American people are easily misled and manipulated, so crazy statements will not called out by anyone and certainly not our press. If the TRUTH were a woman, our nation's press (and politicians) would be called misogynists, for their mistreatment, disregard and abuse of the truth.

In any case, the American people have an abundance of gullibility, for the politicians to exploit. 

I don't really know who is going to win, but I am becoming sick of those January 6th hearings and they would end if the republicans take the house. Then I will become sick of the Hunter Biden hearings for 2 years. That's about the only change I can see happening.

Is there anyone out there... that is worth a damn?

Would Keystone XL Have Helped?

That seems to be all the rage, now with gasoline prices topping the US $5 mark. It seems that everyone can agree, that it is the fault of one political party or the other. So it would seem that allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to be built... would have increased the volume of crude coming into the United States and thereby reduce the price of gasoline.

Except we are exporting crude and petroleum products at an enormous and historical rate. We have exported 920,255,000 barrels of oil and petroleum products since the beginning of March. Certainly we have imported a lot as well. 827,071,000 barrels of oil and petroleum products in that same period. Oh wait... that export number is nearly 100 million barrels higher than the import number.

What would the crude inventory look like... Note the gray area is the 5 year range, both top and bottom, with the blue line being where we actually are and the red line being those 100 million barrels. Note the 5 year is distorted by the sudden drop in consumer demand, due to covid, which would normally be in the 420 million barrel range. Even the past 5 years is distorted in comparison to 7 years ago. (If you struggle with the small print, just click on the image. 

It gets even better as we have exported 86,667,000 barrels of gasoline over that same period, while importing 74,508,000 barrels of gasoline. Oops!

This is why I am having a problem with the idea surrounding the failure to approve Keystone XL as having an impact on our current gasoline prices. 

To be sure, IF we could go back in time and retroactively approve Keystone XL it should reduce the global impact of crude and thereby the price of gasoline, IF everything else remained the same.

To do that, we would need to ignore the shale boom (drill baby drill) and our own Congress in December, 2015, lifted the oil export ban that had been in place for over 40 years and let's not forget the releases of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Briefly, the Keystone XL was proposed back in 2008, just as U.S. gasoline prices roared past the $4 per gallon mark. Keystone XL was a proposal by what was then called Trans Canada, based in Calgary. It was the 4th phase of the project, which came under fire. Politics in Canada prevents pipelines of this scale from going to their coasts, thus it is almost captive to the U.S. Market. 

It should be noted that XL was struck down in November, 2015.

Here is the gasoline price chart, with some embedded notes from me. (Pardon the penmanship)

Here is the U.S. Production chart without my adding comments, so refer to above dates and times... (Note that dates may not line up and I probably should have marked each)

So while we can blame Obama (Democrat) for the Keystone cancellation, it should be pointed out the repeal of the crude oil export ban... was Republican led. So here is what transpired, regarding exports from the USA.

Then finally, the last part of the picture... crude oil historical inventory.

At that point in time, the drill baby drill people were under severe financial stress and really needed to unload crude via exports. Keystone XL would have added pressure as well, although the XL stood for export limited, which seems like the exports would be limited, but in American terms, Keystone XL (export limited) would have been branded Keystone XI (export inc.) Keystone was a Canadian venture. Granted it was being exported to the USA, but intent was points further. 

And it was clear the aim was to link up to Cushing Oklahoma and the new pipelines being put in place to the gulf coast AND thereby be further exported to parts unknown. Pipelines that had moved crude from the gulf to the interior were being reversed, as part of this plan. Yes, the refiners in the Gulf had established Foreign Trade Zone status, thereby exempting the Canadian crude from export ban. It was a pass through arrangement being planned.

Keystone XL was slated to add 850,000 barrels per day into the mix. Yes, it would have theoretically lowered global petroleum prices, but so would the release of 1,000,000 barrels a day from the SPR. Coupled together, the likelihood was prices being about the same as current, as the need to phase out Russian Crude would be pulled forward.

Just because XL was struck down, does not mean their crude is not making its way to the gulf and the U.S. refineries along the gulf. Remember all the problems with rail tanker explosions and fires? The result was new tanker requirements and the biggest makers of these new tankers were subsidiaries of Burlington Northern, which was owned by Berkshire Hathaway. A lot of money to be made by building these new rail tankers and hauling this crude. It would have been cheaper by pipeline, but politics is politics.

Striking down XL doesn't appear to have staunched the flow of crude oil from Canada...

Then there is this... 

CALGARY, Alberta, March 24 (Reuters) - Canada has capacity to increase oil and gas exports by up to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2022 to help improve global energy security following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson on Thursday.

It would seem that existing flows were not at capacity, so how would XL have increased the flows?

I can't really see a way around the current price of gasoline at the pump. We may have seen prices lower than 1 year ago and may see prices come down quicker in the fall... but right now, it would likely be the same. 

As usual, there is plenty of blame to pass around and nothing will really be done to alleviate the rise in prices. 

Would Keystone XL have helped? ONLY IF  YOU BELIEVE NONE OF IT WOULD BE EXPORTED OR DISPLACE U.S. CRUDE TO BE EXPORTED. By the way, I have this beachfront property for sale in Death Valley... if you are interested.

If you feel the need to blame politicians, be sure to blame ALL, in my humble opinion. The finger prints of each party are all over the current situation. 

Let's Talk Energy, or Lack Thereof!

 

It seems everyone is fixated on the high price of gasoline. I have no idea what was expected, when everyone was shouting "hell yeah", stopping imports of Ruskie oil is a small price to pay. 

As I have stated earlier... this seems to fit the definition of "virtue signaling". A lot of chatter, without really meaning it.

As Europe tries to wean themselves off Russian Crude... someone get to make it up. Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, our exports of Crude and Petroleum products has exceeded our imports by an average of 1 million barrels per day. The U.S. based inventories across the spectrum is still below levels seen over the past 5 years in late May.

Do not expect the above to slow any time soon and be mindful of the upside potential in prices. As I had mentioned previously... we are soon entering Hurricane and Tropical Storm season for the Atlantic. With over 50% of our refining capacity along the Gulf Coast... anything more than a slight breeze could really inflate prices at the pump. 

Now for Natural Gas... the prices of natural gas have not hit an all time high in the U.S. but there is clearly upward pressure here, while LNG exports are affecting and easing the prices of natural gas in Europe. Fortunately for us, there is limited infrastructure for processing LNG for export, LNG container ships and offloading facilities in Europe. But there are big bucks to be made, so expect the limitations to fade in the next few years.

In any case, the Natural Gas market will weigh heavily on the inflation readings going forward. It does impact a wide variety of industries. 

Weather or Not! Why Not!

3 times this past week, the notion of a tropical storm or hurricane has popped up on a certain weather forecasting model. It was the only model to indicate this potential and subsequent models did not reflect any such movements.

For the record this one and only model indicated a storm likely moving across the Florida panhandle on the 24th. A day later... nothing. A couple of days later, the indication was a storm likely moving over New Orleans on the 29th. Then nothing. Today it shows a strong disturbance just south of Cuba. Tomorrow will likely show nothing. Only one model has shown anything... all others nothing.

I am NOT forecasting a hurricane or a tropical storm in the near future... or even one at all. My point is about how 50% of the USA petroleum refining capacity is along the Gulf Coast, as well as LNG terminals.

Current inventories of crude and the various petroleum products are below the seasonal range of normal inventory. A gander at the weekly report from the EIA.gov quickly indicates the dilemma we are in. To clarify what below the seasonal range actually means... lowest of the past 5 years, based on this time of year.

We've had massive storms in the past, but were able to weather the storm, due to sufficient inventories. It would not take much of a storm to skyrocket prices from current levels. The potential for a tropical storm along the Gulf Coast, is not an unreasonable forecast for sometime this summer. 

That is my point, weather you like it or not.