All of the relevant (to me) inflation numbers for September 2026

September numbers...

For comparison, this is the August numbers...

                                                    

With 3rd Qtr GDP, I ran some numbers to indicate the impact of gasoline and diesel prices on inflation.

At the end of June and 2nd Qtr GDP, CPI-U inflation was 3.5% Y/Y with 0.98% of that being due to increases in gasoline and diesel prices. 2.52% was not attributable to gasoline and/or diesel.

At the end of September and 3rd Qtr GDP, CPI-U inflation was at 3.7%, with 1.36% being due to increases in gasoline and diesel prices. 2.34% was not attributable to gasoline and/or diesel.

Normally this would be the time I would vent about something. At the moment, I'm just to tired to give a $h!T!

An update on the August inflation numbers with a look at C.O.L.A

Here is a snapshot of August percentages...

The PPI continues to remain a bit high, imo. It is considered the forerunner of future retail pricing, which in turn... impacts the CPI.

As for the C.O.L.A. outlook...

There is a strong chance of 3.6%, based on the energy increases and expected weightings. I am anticipating something between 3.6% and 3.7% for the September CPI. That figure will abruptly change the discussion of the PCE slipping in August and replaced by renewed inflation worries.

I read where the Treasury is preparing to purchase long term bonds, to keep the lid on bond rates. The figure announced is a mere pittance, imo. It won't take long for the market to see through the mist.

This Treasury purchase should not be confused with any FED QE, as I mentioned in this post, from earlier this month.

An Quick look at August 2026 Inflation data and COLA outlook.

With today's BLS inflation report, the numbers look like this...

The PPI report, from yesterday, lends to the belief the inflation rate is rising. 

The COLA projection currently looks like this...

It sits at the 3.5% increase level, but might make it to 3.6%, as energy will likely jump more than some of the tepid forecasts. I will go out on a limb and say 3.5% as my official outlook with an outside chance of 3.6%. My own rate of inflation is 2.7%, primarily due to my very limited driving. 

Of course there are some that think the R-CPI-E should be used, but note the 3.3% y/y rise in that index. It would likely land at 3.4% y/y. 

The underlying argument for the R-CPI-E is the current 366.138 basket, compared to the CPI-W's 328.481, OR the headline CPI-U number of  334.980. All of which list the same timeframe for 100. My problem with the R-CPI-E has been it lagging the past few years. My old article on this.

Sorry, there is no magical formula, nor are the heroes of the Marvel Universe going to spring to life and rescue all of us. 

There Is More Than the National Debt to Worry About!

 I keep reading about the national debt, then consumer debt, etc. 

I probably should worry, but I am getting up there in years, so I find it hard to worry too much about things in the future... I have no control of.

A few things that seems to be overlooked, are corporate debt, municipal and state debt. 

When the time comes for corporate debt to be rolled over, the interest rates will certainly weigh on earnings. Fine, they can raise prices... if the consumer market will bear the increase. I won't even bring in the topic of new debt, to finance some innovative product or expansion. That will also cost more in interest. 

Of course, we have state and municipal debt. In most of these cases a balanced budget is required. Any additional costs due to increased debt service, whether from roll over bonds or new bonds, must be budgeted... and the budget must be balanced.

Of course, newer sources of revenue will be sought (new taxes) as well as potential increases in taxes.

I'm sure the consumer will gladly pay for this, just as they will merrily pay for corporate price increases. 

Soooo... when your eyes roll and cloud up over discussion of treasury rates and home interest rates, don't forget the host of other things happening. 

Everybody is borrowing and you wonder who might be paying. Open your eyes... you know the answer.

PAY ATTENTION!!!