Advance Retail Sales, Through August-2026

It's been awhile since I last published retail sales, but I never stopped tracking...

As always, the orange dots indicate inflation adjusted and the blue dots are nominal retail sales. 

While the numbers might seem impressive, the inflation adjusted sales for March, 2021 were $589.455B, compared to August 2026 of $597.656B. So the actual quantity of goods has not changed much in over 5 years. It did bottom in April, 2024 at an inflation adjusted $567,273. The latter being a rate of about +2.1% annual growth. Not so bad. 

For more in depth... the Retail Sales Report.

Advance Retail Sales

The numbers came out today... https://tinyurl.com/2tjb5w36

Automotive and Home Improvement stores were almost the entirety of the slippage. 

It does indicate some slippage in inflation adjusted, but still within the range from March, 2021... to present. Very near the median and average for that period of time. 

Of course, the impact of tariffs cannot be ascertained by this report. On the surface... what the impact is, the economy is adjusting, or so it seems. 

Rebound or Last Gasp!

 

The Census Bureau has released the August Advanced Monthly Retail Sales. This release does not include inflation adjustments, so I have added inflation into the following graph, as well as Stimulus Payouts.

While the headlines noted a "rebound", it should be pointed out that one months does not make a trende. 5 months do appear to be trending down on both current dollar and inflation adjusted dollars.

The downward pressure continues from the Auto sector, which is down 8.0% from June. Clothing and clothing accessories down 2.7% from June. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores down 4.6%. All unadjusted for inflation.

Overall, the report was down 1.1% from June... without factoring inflation, which would push it down 1.8%.

Most of that "rebound" is in the area of non store retailers, electronic shopping and mail order houses up 0.4% from June. General Merchandise stores also contributed to the "rebound" with 2.4% unadjusted for inflation.

Excluding the auto sector, the report indicated 0.077% boost over June, unadjusted. Adjusted for inflation, this sector rose 0.008%. 

I find it difficult to shoot for joy, with this report, as it appears more of a flat line with tendency downward. A lot of questions...

Is the stimulus boost waning, is it supply chain issues, is it the inflation?