Showing posts with label personal consumption expenses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label personal consumption expenses. Show all posts

Thursday, December 1, 2022

Incomplete Data and Hyperbole!!

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2022, this morning..

I have highlighted the adjustments from last month's release

You can scroll down on each month's release to examine the adjustments. It is not uncommon to have these revisions, as they are estimates and with the arrival of more data, the estimates can be further refined. Sometimes, this can result in adjustments going back a few month, as indicated by the numbers underlined in red.

In other words... the estimate is based on incomplete data. What astounds me, is the hyperbole surrounding this single report, or any other, as some signal from God... that some FED reversal is imminent. 6.0% is triple a target of 2.0%. At least it used to be, in the days before FTX.

Yes, I understand the one month PCE ex F&E was 2.7% annualized. This past July, saw that figure at 0.8% annualized. So hush! The FED probably uses a lot of data points, as well as one of those magic eight balls.


Overall inflation rates are improving across the board and it is not impossible that a more normal rate of inflation could be upon us by next summer, based on current progression. However, is that due to recessionary pressures, Federal Reserve actions, global intrigue... or any combination? 

I dunno!


Friday, October 28, 2022

Personal Consumption Expenditures and Outlays Report - October 28th

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, September 2022, this morning.

Click to Enlarge
Not real sure where the money for personal consumption expenditures is coming from, given the fall off of disposable income. Credit? Of course it is a factor, and not sure how resilient the consumer will be in the coming months, against higher interest rates.

Click to Enlarge
The pink is slowly receding from this chart, but that is more about base effects of Year over Year measurements. The Month on Month projections for October inflation are expected to be the highest... since June. 

Available stats for October would have gasoline rising +2.6%, after falling since June. According to my own personal expense tabulations... food sure isn't slowing. Of course the month is not over and something dramatic could happen to lower those two. It would take free giveaways of food and gasoline, which is not impossible... but highly improbable.

This Week in Petroleum Summary May 8th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's  full report . Gasoline fell -2.3¢ for the week, but remains +10.3¢ from year ago level. Consumption did edge up this past r...