A Few Thoughts and Opinions on Ukraine

It's the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. IF YOU IGNORE Crimea, 11 years ago to this very day. If memory serves me correctly, in the west, there was gnashing of teeth, squirming and statements of dismay. That was about the end of it.

It should be noted that some guy named Yanukovych was ousted on 2-22-2014, as president of Ukraine. He was pro-Russian and was ousted (coup) during something called the Maiden Revolution. He fled the country. The term "coup" is in dispute, although he was a democratically elected president... forced from office. Of course, the term "democratically elected" is also in dispute as to his election.

There is also, the potential for western dithering in such matters. 

Hence the seizure of Crimea and something else... a bitter dispute arose in an area called Donbas. The pro Russian folks in that area, rose up to combat Ukraine. This situation was fully supported by Russia.

With the current anniversary... a lot of news media attention. This has also brought up Zelensky's latest offer. Somehow the entirety of the offer has been sliced up and presented as "Zelensky's says he will resign, if it means peace". Quite a noble offer, except he also said Ukraine is to be admitted to NATO.

Clearly he has no plans to resign, nor allow elections... where he would likely lose. As for the NATO portion of his statement, it would require unanimous consent from the other NATO members. Russia would likely keep fighting, as Ukraine being in NATO is a big NO NO.

While it would be easy to expect the USA to block Ukraine's ascension into NATO, there are other countries that would have objections, such as Turkey.

One possible solution, is that the USA withdraws from NATO by January, 2029, with a phase down of USA troops in Europe during this period. 

There might even be a European peace keeping force in Ukraine, which would constitute the current borders of control. (cease fire in place)

This would appear to be a victory for Russia, with the USA leaving NATO, the real winner would be the USA, as Europe would be forced to dramatically pick up the pace of defense spending, etc. Which would allow Europe to keep Russia in check and the USA to focus on the Far East. 

For the record. When Russia slipped 30+ years ago, there was all sorts of talks about a peace dividend. I thought a withdrawal from NATO would have been appropriate. The only peace dividend seems to have been for Europe, of which they have squandered.

NATO and the Western Alliance

 

Where to start? I really don't know and at times this might seem like a rant, so bear with me. 

We are being told that the NATO alliance has never been stronger but is that true. There is a lot of posturing in favor of NATO, but what are the real opinions of Europeans, Canadians, and Americans.

In 2019, PEW research published the results of their survey titled "NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States," with the subheading of "Many in member countries express reservations about fulfilling Article 5’s collective defense obligations."

Maybe I am misinterpreting the results, but it would seem that much of the public is opposed to their own military engaging on behalf of another member. I suspect this is due to the one- and only-time article V was invoked. It becomes difficult to determine the thought processes of those giving their opinions.

At that time, I would have suspected they meant if the U.S. was again attacked, but recent events suggest if any NATO member was attacked. The PEW Research addressed this in 2019 with the question... 

The expectation is for the U.S. to carry the load. This idea is firmly planted, in my opinion. Certainly, polls taken today might suggest something else, but is the respondent simply saying what is a safe answer?

The problem with all of this, is the U.S. might be able to do the heavy lifting, but at what cost and who bears the brunt of the criticism for any collateral damage. Collateral damage would include such things as economic turmoil, due to energy supply curtailment. Pause and think about that.

I have no doubt that European Citizens would blame the U.S. as it seems to be their historical go to when anything bad happens ... and unfortunately sometimes it is correct (rarely taking responsibility for their own mistakes). It would likely lead to the collapse of NATO. There would likely be a hue and cry over what the U.S. had wrought and lead the Americans to turn very negative towards NATO... to the point of opting out. Not that far away, in my humble opinion. A great many Americans are already questioning NATO's value.

Therefore, the U.S. must walk a razor thin line between supporting Ukraine and avoiding Russia cutting off energy supplies. 

Like a lot of folks, I originally thought Russia just wanted Ukraine, but I suspect the main objective is dissolution of NATO and severing U.S. ties with Europe. 

I realize this might seem far-fetched, but given the attitudes of various countries, towards the United States, ...it moves the needle towards that real possibility.

Unfortunately, there is a much bigger picture at play... which would be the Western Alliance, which in this case would also include some countries in the Pacific. In that regard, I am referring to a way of life we have become accustomed to.

Indecisive action is leaving the door open to further divisions and giving the enemies to our way of life, an opening to seize upon.

No, this was not a positive and uplifting blog article. I am old and won't likely see the end of all this, but I have children and grandchildren for which I worry. 

Works of Fiction

From Deutsche Welle

Ran across this in Deutsche Welle... 

The fiction debut of the former US presidential candidate with mystery author Louise Penny has again stirred a discussion on what prompts politicians to write fiction.

How can I resist? Clinton and works of fiction. Politicians and works of fiction. I can find no satire tags in the article, but how can it be anything other than satire. 

So yes, I frequently observe foreign news websites, as everyone tends to favor their own government/ideology and what we see in the U.S. is not what others see. The truth generally "lies"  somewhere in the middle.

Many of those European papers are lamenting the U.S. shift to the Pacific and the need to possibly come together and form a European Union military alliance... in place of NATO.

Apparently this is due to the U.S. not seeking European consultation over Afghanistan, but rather seeking to further U.S. interests. The E.U. seemed to think that they could tell the U.S. what to do and somehow are deeply concerned the U.S. hasn't done what they are told.

Not sure how the EU arrived at their former illusion or should it be delusion. At what point did the U.S. indicate the EU held any sway over U.S. policies?

Good, bad or whatever, the U.S. under Trump stated the U.S. was leaving Afghanistan. Biden was in agreement, although attempting to blame it all on Trump. In any case, Biden made it clear the U.S. was leaving and gave hard dates. 

Granted the final exit was terrible and poorly planned, but for the EU to attempt to blame the entirety of the mess on the U.S. is ludicrous at best. These complainers had ample time to gather forces to secure a better outcome... but didn't. 

It's because they couldn't or wouldn't. Simply easier to blame someone else and say the U.S. has failed some obligation to the EU that never existed. The EU has had its weakness exposed and does not like it. There is a lot of talk, but nothing will ever come of it, imo. 

Until then, I will consider the discussion of a EU military as a work of fiction.