2024 Presidential Election Review, part 1 of ?

First off, I did a decent job in forecasting the election. If you were to read previous post, I always mentioned the lean states as favoring Trump and projected an EV tally of 306. I messed up on Nevada, however.

Still, I will brag on myself, as no one else will... or even pay attention. That's okay!

From previous post...

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs. 

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote.

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

Which leads me to the 2nd topic. Note this projection.

Currently, the media is reporting Trump at 50.6% of the vote. Everyone is talking about majority and mandate. A word of caution... of the 11M+ votes remaining to be tabulated, 82.5% are from Democratic strongholds, such as California. 

Using the current state by state percentages of votes remaining and factoring each current candidate percent of vote... Trump will be just shy of majority, by approximately 32.6K votes. Naturally, this can change in the coming days. Remember: a majority is 50% + 1 vote. Certainly his plurality of vote is not in question.

If/when that vote tally slips below the 50% mark, you will hear loud and hard from the left... Trump doesn't have a majority and therefore does not have a mandate. Of course, the right will proclaim Kennedy's votes pushes it into mandate territory. Currently, his number 663K, or 0.45%.

That will be interesting to watch, if indeed, Trump slips below 50%.

As far as projections of this years vote to 2024... I present the following. Note the red numbers are less than 2020. You can click on the image to enlarge... I think.

In summation... if you think this election is over and done with, it is for the most part. The &itching, whining, bull5hit, etc. is just getting started. 

Review of EIA's This Week in Petroleum, October 26 2022

Another week, another report. This Week in Petroleum from the EIA.gov.

Click to Enlarge*The Net- U.S. only is adjusted for 5,070,000 barrels deducted from the SPR. 

From last week, the crude inventory increased 2.6M barrels; distillates rose 170K; gasoline inventory slipped 1.5M barrels. 

For the reporting period, WTI was $85.32, compared to year ago of $84.68. Up 64¢ or +0.08%.

Gasoline at the pump, however was $3.769 compared to last year's $3.383, a difference of +38.3¢ or +11.3% . Spot prices last year was $2.517, compared to this year's $2.916 a difference of 39.9¢ or +15.8%.

When it comes to highway diesel the current period's price is $5.316, compared to last year's $3.611. A whopping difference of $1.705 or +47.3%.

The problem with diesel fuel is inventory being low throughout much of the country, but is significantly lower in the Northeast and Central Atlantic...

Click to Enlarge- Distillate inventory

Not seeing any relief until demand falls a bit further, which only makes more available for export.