2024 Presidential Election Review, part 1 of ?

First off, I did a decent job in forecasting the election. If you were to read previous post, I always mentioned the lean states as favoring Trump and projected an EV tally of 306. I messed up on Nevada, however.

Still, I will brag on myself, as no one else will... or even pay attention. That's okay!

From previous post...

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs. 

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote.

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

Which leads me to the 2nd topic. Note this projection.

Currently, the media is reporting Trump at 50.6% of the vote. Everyone is talking about majority and mandate. A word of caution... of the 11M+ votes remaining to be tabulated, 82.5% are from Democratic strongholds, such as California. 

Using the current state by state percentages of votes remaining and factoring each current candidate percent of vote... Trump will be just shy of majority, by approximately 32.6K votes. Naturally, this can change in the coming days. Remember: a majority is 50% + 1 vote. Certainly his plurality of vote is not in question.

If/when that vote tally slips below the 50% mark, you will hear loud and hard from the left... Trump doesn't have a majority and therefore does not have a mandate. Of course, the right will proclaim Kennedy's votes pushes it into mandate territory. Currently, his number 663K, or 0.45%.

That will be interesting to watch, if indeed, Trump slips below 50%.

As far as projections of this years vote to 2024... I present the following. Note the red numbers are less than 2020. You can click on the image to enlarge... I think.

In summation... if you think this election is over and done with, it is for the most part. The &itching, whining, bull5hit, etc. is just getting started. 

2024 Presidential Election Update, Final Edition?

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

The under polling should be interesting to see, but that will come in after election analysis.

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote. 

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

It is razor thin and should be entertaining... the next couple of days, or possibly more.

 

2024 Presidential Election Update, November 2nd Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 235 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 77 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 71, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

However, the shift since last week, has been closing the gap. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have fallen into MoE territory.

It will be a very long election night, stretching well into Wednesday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 26th Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 264 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. Arizona and Georgia are starting to lean heavier into Trump territory, which would put the count at 291.

What is interesting to me... is the national vote count. It appears a possibility that Trump might win a majority of that vote. 

Contrary to what some people might believe... a majority constitutes 50% plus 1 vote of total votes cast.

Going back to at least 1828, indicates that the person with the majority of votes always wins the election... except in 1876, when Rutherford B Hayes won the electoral vote with 47.92% of the vote against Samuel Tilden's 50.92%. 

Not sure either of this year's candidates will receive a majority of the vote, but the potential for Trump to gain the electoral vote and the majority... does exist.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 19th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting back above the upper threshold of margin of error and Arizona easing back into that upper threshold. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 279 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 33, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 17 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 17 days to go.

Last week, I commented on the dems throwing everything including the kitchen sink, into the campaign. We are getting into ripping down drywall, and tearing out plumbing and wiring... at this point.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 12th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting below the upper threshold of margin of error. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 274 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 38, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 32 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 24 days to go.

While there has been fluctuations in Trump's EV count, there has been little movement in Harris'.

With 24 days to go, expect an even more hysterical campaign, if such a thing is impossible. It will be beyond everything but the kitchen sink... to multiple kitchen sinks, imho.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 5th Edition

The race seems to be shifting, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 290 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 22, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 16 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 31 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, moving towards Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, easing towards Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump
• Pennsylvania, slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

The race is really to close to call, but there is some evidence the Harris campaign is facing headwinds.

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 28th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 240 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 72, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 66 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 38 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, seemingly favoring Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, very slim in favor of Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump, but Harris cutting into lead
• Pennsylvania, very slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

It is one thing to say these polls are within the margin of error, but that margin of error usually indicates the point of confidence. Most of the polls are near the center of those MOE ranges. That is NOT indicating much in the way of confidence.

Translation: This race is DAMN tight!

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 21st Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 67, with an edge still favoring Trump at 46 and Harris at 21. Thus, Trump at 291 and Harris at 247. 270 is needed to win. 45 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump with  slim edge, at 60%

Georgia - 16 Evs... Trump with the edge, at 85%

Michigan - 15EVs... Harris with a razor thin edge

Nevada - 6 EVs... Harris, razor thin, but edging up. 

Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 73%, down sharply from last week

Those represent 67 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 5, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has taken the lead in the national composite... 49.9 ~ 49.6. In 2016, Clinton led Trump 42.0 ~ 40.3. In 2020, Biden led Trump 50.3 ~ 43.5

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 14th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 61, with an edge still favoring Trump at 42 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 52 days to go. 

While Harris finally moved up on the electoral count, it was more of Virginia moving out of the Toss-up range in her favor. 

While nothing is firm until after the election... Trump seems to have a firmer grip on 245 EVs, with the following odds in a few other states.

• Pennsylvania - 19 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 89%
• Michigan - 16 EVS... Trump odds of winning - 86%
• Arizona - 11 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 80%
• Georgia - 16 EVs... Trump odds of winning - 69%

Those represent 62 EVs. Harris needs 3 of the 4, whereas Trump needs 2. 

Harris has whittled away at what was once a commanding Trump lead, but can that pace continue over the next 52 days? 

Now the question is whether I will continue to track all this, as my several of my files have become corrupted, and several attempts to restore them have failed. So do I go back to square 1?

2024 Presidential Election Update, September 7th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 61 and Harris at 19. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 59 days to go.

Harris slipped in Georgia and held steady in Nevada. 538 has Harris with a +3.1 margin nationally, whereas I have Trump with a +0.4 lead.

It should be pointed out that Clinton was polling a +3.9 point lead nationally, just before the 2016 election. Although it should be pointed out that she lost the electoral count, due to less than 100K votes in selected states. Also, Trump lost the 2020 electoral count also, by less than 100K votes in selected states. An election that had Biden leading in the polls by +8.4 points. 

It is the electoral count that matters. AS of right now... Trump has the edge. 

Next week brings on a debate. Doubtful that the polls would include results from after the debates... for a couple of weeks. 

In a boring stage of the polling, imho. 

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 31st Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 245 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 80, with an edge favoring Trump at 45 and Harris at 35. Thus, Trump at 290 and Harris at 248. 270 is needed to win. 66 days to go.

Harris has made inroads in Georgia and Nevada and narrowed the gap in several other states. However, that bounce may be over and we have entered a plateau for both candidates. 

Should be fun to watch, imho.

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 24th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 229 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 96. 

With RFKjr seemingly dropping from the race in battleground states, the chatter is about where those votes might drop. The discussion seems to be the idea that 50% of those votes would ease towards Trump, and 25% to Harris.

If that were to take place, the Trump lead would move to 245~226. 

The question of Trump's under polling has cropped up in the conversation. This is due to Trump doing much better in polling for both 2016 and 2020. It is likely a factor, but will it extend to this election?

We will find out in 73 days, or whenever the count is completed and the lawsuits are settled. 

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 17th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump/Vance with 235 to 213 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range last week.

Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump/Vance 301:237 Harris/Walz. The change from last week, was Arizona moving from a slight edge to Trump/Vance, to a slight edge for Harris/Walz.

The Harris/Walz lead in Arizona translates to about 10,362 votes. Biden/Harris won the state in 2020, by actual 10,457 votes.

So yes... it is getting interesting!

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 10th Edition

The race continues to somewhat tighten, with the electoral vote forecast now having Trump with 235 to 213 for Harris. The toss-ups are now at 90. The latter being Wisconsin narrowly sliding into toss-up range.

Throwing the toss-ups into the mix, results in Trump 312:226 Harris.

Red TU (toss-up) means leaning republican, although within the MOE (margin of error). Blue TU means leaning democrat, within the margin of error. 

The margin of error is based on weighted MOEs of published polls. Which widened this past week.

The ERR, is a weighted calculation based on error rate of polls versus election results, discounting their MOE for the past 4 presidential election cycles, where available. The ERR is also based on the minimum error rate, as well.

I have previously discussed some of the potential reasons for such rates of error.

The oddity of some states with a much higher rate of error from the same pollster, still escapes me. A pollster can nearly predict Georgia with accuracy, but the same pollster completely miss the mark in Wisconsin. 

The data is based on 60 polls, dated from July 25th, to August 9th. Not all states and districts have been polled since the upheaval in the race, but there is recognition of some blue states staying blue, as well as some red states staying red.

• AZ - 6
• CA - 1
• FL - 2
• GA - 6
• MI - 7
• MN - 1
• MT - 1
• NC - 4
• NH - 1
• NM - 1
• NY - 1
• OH - 1
• OR - 1
• PA - 13
• WA - 1
• WI - 8

Only 7 of these states, with 47 polls, currently fall into battleground status, out the 11 represented in the chart.

More polls can be expected in the coming week, but will likely be heavily tilted towards the so called battleground states.

Remember when Florida, Iowa and Texas were considered battleground states? Remember when Ohio was considered a bellwether state? Interesting terminology, that a wether was a castrated male sheep/goat of a flock, with a bell hung around its neck to lead the flock. Somehow, it does sound appropriate for elections! I digress!

2024 Presidential Election Update, August 4th Edition

It has been said that opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one. The race has tightened, so pucker up!

Overall, Harris has taken the lead in national polling and the Electoral Vote count has tightened. Last week had the Trump count at 267, with Harris at 209.

It should be noted that polling data is severely lacking from non battleground states, as well as some battleground states. Realistically, only polling that began on or after 7-22, is considered. 54 polls of 15 states during that period, with 41 of those spread across just a handful of battleground states.

• Arizona - 5
• Georgia - 7
• California -2
• Florida -2
• Michigan -7
• Maine - 1
• Minnesota - 3
• North Carolina -2
• New Hampshire -3
• Nevada - 3
• Ohio - 1
• Oregon -1
• Pennsylvania -11
• Washington -1
• Wisconsin - 5

So a lot of wiggle room, although the race still favors Trump... as the path to a victory is wider than Harris' path. 

As for a debate, I suspect the Harris campaign is giddy with the recent surge in support, but as time wears on, the need for a debate will become clearer. Attempting to hijack what was billed as a Biden v Trump, and magically appear as a Harris v Trump debate... is not as easy as forcing Biden to drop out, imho.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 28th Edition

A lot can happen in 8 days. If you believe the media, Harris is surging, although it would appear that the numbers aren't much different than just before the debate. Trump leads with 267 EVs, to Harris at 209... with 270 being the magic number.

What is lacking now, that was not prior to debate... is enough data to give a clear analysis. There are many states that have not been polled this past week, but we can assume that some states such as California will be Blue, and some like my state of Kentucky... will be Red. 

There are a number of states that fall into the "battleground" definition. Texas and Florida are no longer in that realm, imho.

The issue of battleground states is important, as small numbers in some states, caused the election to move one way or another.

As an example...

A mere 42,918 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, moved Biden to 306 electoral votes, instead of the 269~269 tie. Nevada's 33,596 would have moved Trump back into the White House.

It's interesting to note that IF Trump had won that election, neither he nor Biden would be running for re-election this year. It would also be questionable if Harris would be anywhere on the horizon. Something to think about, imho.

So battleground states are important.

States with asterisks do not have enough polling data to really differentiate candidate status, imho, with the exception of North Carolina. The TU or Toss-up is colored to indicate the slight lean... based on current data. Data is from this past week. 

Also the yellow blocks indicate states with Kennedy on the ballot. Which again, has the democrats attempting to protect democracy by removing Kennedy from the ballot. This is going on in several states.

I would think additional polls will be revealed this coming week, so I would expect some changes. As for the ERR column... this is for error rating of previous election cycles. As an example and denoted in the 2020 election statistics chart, Wisconsin has historically under-polled for republicans over the past 4 election cycles. Why? I do not know. So a polling tie in Wisconsin would likely result in a decent lead for Trump and its 10 EVs. Just not yet. 

Georgia on the other hand, has a near spotless polling to election record. My initial reaction is to add Georgia's 16 EVs to the Trump column, but a bit more data would clear the air for me.

So, I am settling with the Trump - 267 ~ Harris - 209, for now.