Review of EIA Weekly Report for 6-15-2022

 

The EIA has released this week's report. 

Petroleum product movement from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast remains robust while exports reach record highs

That's what it says and yes, those exports keeps adding up.  102,309,000 barrels of crude and petroleum exports ABOVE what has been imported since first of March. Oh and 14,091,000 barrels of gasoline have been exported in that period, ABOVE imports.

I keep hearing how someone is threatening the refiners to do more. Do what... export? I really can't believe our dear leaders are that dumb, BUT... they think we are and can be easily misled. So in addition to the current heatwave baking the country, we must endure more hot air from D.C. 

Of course, it would be easy to see the futures market for gasoline was heading down sharply by as much as 25¢, then criticize refiners, at which point someone could then turn around and take credit... when gasoline prices drop at the pump. Just wait for it. Of course, it will serve as some kind of proof of skullduggery, the next time prices jump back up. 

Frankly, an angry electorate cannot think rationally and it is easy to trot out the usual bogeymen to deflect blame. 

The problems with Freeport has really rocked the LNG market...

Dutch is up 50% and the UK is nearly double last week. Of course, problems with Nord Stream and also the Norwegian pipeline is wreaking havoc.

That's their problem, which actually might provide some relief to U.S. Consumers as the natural gas slated for LNG export will stay at home... for awhile.

It really cannot hurt... or even over saturate our storage.

I think this is enough for awhile, as I am starting to get tired of the less than positive news. 

Review of EIA Weekly Report for 6-8-2022

 Gasoline, Diesel and Crude Oil stocks are still well below seasonal average.

Much is being made about those inventories climbing since last week, except gasoline. It should be noted that imports remain similar to previous weeks, but exports fell 1.5 ~2.0 million barrels per day, compared to past week's numbers.

Not sure this portends to a capping of crude and petroleum products pricing. Consider the imports of gasoline actually exceeded the exports of gasoline for the first time in a few weeks. Consumption of gasoline is still slightly below last year's pace... yet inventory fell by about 600K barrels.

The AAA has the national average of regular gasoline at $4.955 per gallon. It should break that $5 level over the next few days, according to the futures market.

Here's a look at where we (EU, UK, US) were, where we are, and what the futures market indicates for natural gas. At some point that high price of natural gas will make its way to the consumer, via electrical generation, manufacturing with high NatGas inputs as well as those using natural gas in their homes.

I keep hearing that inflation might be at peak, but that doesn't necessarily mean it is subsiding. 

Oh, aren't I a bundle of optimism!

Update: This afternoon, an explosion at a Freeport LNG has halted the terminal for 3 weeks, according to reports. NatGas prices plunged on Henry Hub, as this will slowdown NatGas exports. EU and UK markets were closed, so should watch direction tomorrow.