A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XV

Oh my!! After all the hoopla of the past week, I am not seeing any major shifts. 

Before starting, I have dropped Texas and Florida from the battleground states, most frequently visited in past elections. 

For Texas, in 2020, Trump generally led in the polls with a poll margin of 1.1%, just before the election. He won with a 5.57% margin. He currently leads in the polls with a 10.1% advantage, compared to same time in 2020... of 2.9%.

Florida polls this time in 2020, had Biden with a 2.2% lead, and a 2.5% lead just before the election. Trump won the state with 3.36% as the margin. Trump currently has a 10.3% lead over Biden.

I hope that answers the why.

Looking at the remaining battleground states for current polling and 2020 polling...

This time in 2020, saw Biden leading in all these states... except Georgia. The actual vote margins were much thinner than polls, everywhere except Minnesota and Virginia.

Fast forward to current, and Biden only leads in Minnesota and Virginia, with Minnesota being very tight, when adjusting for polling errors of past years.

So despite the hoopla, not much has really changed, except Pennsylvania has eased back into Trump territory.

Still a long way to go, but a look back to 2020 and/or 2016, does not look favorable for a dramatic shift, imho.

Until next time...

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIV

Time for an update, although not a lot has changed.

Since the last election blog, the national poll indicates a slight dip in Biden's numbers of -0.1%. Not really significant.

Much ado was made about a certain big poll, for a leading national publication... with statements of how Biden is narrowing the gap to 0.1%, yet still trailing in a poll that had Biden with a 14 point lead just before the 2020 election. An election that had Biden winning by 4.45 points.

However, the electoral votes are what matters, with Biden 306-232 victory, or 13.8 point margin.

BUT, Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes; Arizona by a mere 10,457 votes; Wisconsin by a mere 20,682 votes. If those states had flipped to Trump, it would have tied at 269 electoral votes. Nevada's 33,596 vote margin for Biden could have tipped to Trump and gave Trump the 2020 election.

So a total of 76,514 votes determined the 2020 election, out of a total of 158,594,895 votes cast or a very miniscule amount. Less than 0.049%.

Of course, there is still 198 days before the general election and things can change. Since last election blog, there has been some small changes.

Arizona has seen a very slight increase in Trump's lead; Florida has seen erosion in Biden's numbers; Texas has also seen erosion the Biden's numbers. Minnesota, also sees some slippage for Biden.

North Carolina has seen improvement for Biden, with Trump slipping in Michigan. 

None of the above indicate a change in electoral outlook... at this time.

Back in 2016, Trump rose up from relative obscurity to presidency, even though there was tremendous amounts of negative publicity. Here we are in 2024, with Trump receiving even more negative publicity. 

Perception of the public is hard to gauge, but the public does not have a very high opinion of "government" in general, with trust in government about 16% on recent polls I have seen. The media is constantly reporting government efforts to find Trump guilty of some criminal and/or civil malfeasance. Not sure it is working as planned, imho.

Which leads me to believe that all these court proceedings, are not really bad publicity for Trump.

Just saying...

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Three

In part two, I did a quick peak at current polls, based on just D v R.

Part 3 adds independents, etc., into the mix, although impact is just D and R...

Certainly, my methodology is not very scientific, but it would appear the Kennedy factor is actually harming Trump, more than Biden, although both trend lower with the inclusion of Kennedy.

At this point, Kennedy does not appear anywhere near getting even 1 electoral vote, but the potential to drag voters away from either major party's candidate is possible. However, as stated previously, the impact appears more on the Republican side, rather than the Democrat side. Most notably in Arizona, North Caroline, and Pennsylvania.

The one thing about polls, is people do tend to wish for one thing during poll season, but will vote their party at election time, if republican or democrat. 

Independents might switch back and forth, but generally vote for which major party candidate makes them feel better, or rather... less worse.