Will the Consumer Continue to Carry the U.S. Economy?

Hmmm... The real earnings are almost healed compared to February 2020...

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with unemployment rate, now matching that date as well...

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As well as the number of employed near the same number or slightly higher...

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So, everything should be hunky-dory... right? Even when counting in the various stimuli and inflation adjusted retail trade...

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Everything almost matches up, when considering the consumer credit...

Click to Enlarge - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSL

Except the real earnings are inflation adjusted, the retail trade has been inflation adjusted, but the consumer credit is nominal. Which is ever so slightly slipping behind, when factoring inflation. At least that is my take.

Of course, the graph does not capture all credit numbers.  From the Federal Reserve. 

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.3 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 18.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent.

The inflation rate from the CPI was 8.3 percent annually for this period. Revolving credit has jumped 2.5% since June and nonrevolving was 0.9% during that period. We all know that interest rates are moving up, but which would have the higher interest rates? Revolving or nonrevolving?

In normal times, the revolving credit would increase roughly 3.6% annually and nonrevolving credit would edge up about 5% annually. So the 2 month jump in nonrevolving of 0.9%, does stay within the norms. That 2.5%, 2 month revolving credit jump does not translate very well to annual... 15%. It's basically four times higher, against a backdrop of increasing interest rates. 

Those believing the consumer can keep the economy going... are living on borrowed time. It will not be long, before the evidence of a consumer spending decline is clear. 

My guess would be the month following the first cold shock and those higher heating bills arrive. 

Are We, Or Aren't We...

... in a recession?

No one truly knows, although many have an opinion, and depending on political stripe... we either are or we aren't. And it is always because something is a clear sign. Never mind, those government stats containing revisions from previous months, it must be deemed as absolute. 

Then there are the BIG money folks, that have gotten rich off QE and want those glory days to return... meaning the FED to reverse policy. BIG money really needs there to be a recession for that to happen and will lobby long and hard, that we are already in a recession and are betting on the FED to ease off rate hikes, etc. 

GDP gets revised a couple of times and then is revised once a year thereafter. 

Yep... revised from a negative in June 2015, to a positive in one month after third release and by 2021, was downright stellar.

Citing GDP as some guarantee, one way or the other... is based on something likely to be revised. Besides, it might just be possible that the 3rd quarter of this year could be positive. Would that mean the recession is over?

Employment situation... the word revised is used 4 times in the latest report. This month...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 2,000, from

+384,000 to +386,000 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08052022.htm

The previous month...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000 to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07082022.htm

Which is it? 

My goal is not to cast doubt on government reports, but putting my heart and soul into a specific set of data as gospel... is just plain foolish, in my opinion. 

Earlier I mentioned the possibility of a 3rd QTR GDP print being positive. I base that on the blowout of trade balance and how it impacted the 1st two Quarters.

The trade deficit started blowing out in 3rd Qtr. 2020 and then accelerated, with another major drop down in the 1st Qtr, and barely easing the 2nd Qtr. That would be the period when our business leaders went nuts with over ordering. That may ease back a bit going forward. 

In an alternate universe, where the trade imbalance did not drop so dramatically, the 1st Qtr. GDP would have been +2.3% and 2nd Qtr. at +1.6%

Of course on the potential negative side is the extreme jump in credit. I have no idea how much longer that can last, but with the Federal Reserve ready to push up rates further... something's got to give, in my opinion. BUT, that set of data might likely also be revised. 

There is an old adage of "When your neighbor is out of a job... it's a recession. When you're out of a job... it's a depression". Probably the most accurate of all metrics!

Now for MY opinion. We are not in a recession yet. We may soon be, but the severity is unknown, until we are actually in the middle of it. I would say that any looming recession in the U.S. will be exacerbated by the current economic morass of Europe. 

I am trying to get a grasp on why Germany's trade balance is narrowing, when the Euro is cheaper now than 1 year ago. Is it difficulty in obtaining necessary materials to manufacture items? Is it the high cost of Natural Gas that is offsetting any gains from the weak Euro? Is it a combination of both, or several other factors. 

I don't know, but do worry about the impacts on Europe as a whole, which would include the U.K. in this instance. The natural gas issue, will not go away anytime soon, in my opinion. The materials issues are likely not to go away anytime soon, as well. 

This appears to be a very challenging time for Western Civilization. 

We seem to have a situation where many folks are being duped by big money into believing we are already in a recession, which could cause a recession via lack of confidence. Be careful what you wish for. 

Of course, we also have folks in the U.S. eagerly anticipating and repeating statements of a C.O.L.A. being above 10.5% or more, without considering how much additional inflation is required to get us to that level. But then, the point might be to inflate expectations and then cry foul, when it doesn't happen. Be careful what you wish for.