A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 20th Edition

Contrary to reports, Biden could still possibly win in November, although his paths to success... are limited.

My own inexpert analysis, indicates a slight narrowing of national polls to +0.3 points. 538 has the Trump lead widening to +3.2 points from last week's +1.9. Interestingly, the Trump increase seems to be at the expense of Kennedy. This may be due to changing polling methods.

Generally, polls do nationwide, with a full slate of candidates, then extrapolate the data to meet the state specific. However, with the focus on "battleground" states, many polls are becoming state specific. Therefore, the state specific poll will match with state ballot. In many of the "battleground" states, Kennedy is not on the ballot, therefore, is not on the poll. 

In any case, Kennedy's polling has slipped from the usual 9.5%~10.5%, into the 8.6% range. That falloff, does match the Trump increase.

As for the nonsense of the democrats putting Kennedy on their ticket and easily beating Trump... that is overlooking the animosity of the dems regarding Kennedy. It would be a toss-up as to which they dislike more... Trump or Kennedy.

As stated, not much real change in the national numbers. For the state level...

Again, not much movement. At this point, Trump has the edge on Electoral votes. However, the Kennedy conundrum, still persists.

The states highlighted in yellow have given ballot access to Kennedy. So the question remains... if Kennedy is not on the ballot, which candidate will they then choose... or leave the ballot blanks.

Even with this conundrum, the edge goes to Trump, at 263~197. Several states, now leaning favorably to Trump, could ease back into toss-up, if Kennedy does not make the ballot... in those states.

It's fun to watch, and who knows that will happen this upcoming week. I might have to start all over from scratch. 

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 14th Edition

Warning... a very long post!

Note: This is data collection and analysis, as it stands right now. Granted, yesterday's events may alter this data in the future, but that is for the future to decide. 

As of this writing, Biden is still in the race. He doesn't seem to be really slipping in the polls. There is still a chance that he could win enough electoral votes. How??

The democratic party is running on a save democracy campaign. As such they are trying to save democracy by preventing 3rd party candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., from getting on the ballot in so called battleground states. As of this writing, he has made it on the ballot of several states, but the battleground states, are few, and are highlighted in yellow. 

All of these states are polled as if 3rd parties are on the ballot, including RFK Jr. The Democrat strategy being that 3rd parties pulling support away from Biden moreso, than they are from Trump. 

Further, if these 3rd party candidates are not on the November ballot, then those voters will fall back into line for either Biden or Trump, and the belief being, this will benefit Biden much more than Trump.

So the defenders of democracy are furiously eroding any attempts at democracy, or so it seems.

If they succeed, the race really tightens up, from an electoral count point of view, as in toss-up.

It has made it into the mainstream media, but not really on the evening news. Apparently, it is very undemocratic to interfere with the democrats. /s

Nationally, the polls in those battleground states still show Biden in a precarious position. The problem is down the ballot. It is one thing, as a democrat from [insert district] with a tight election, to paint the republican opponent as being a Trump advocate. Quite another to pledge allegiance to Biden, which can and will be used against said democrat... endlessly.

The current polling comparison, which does omit 3rd party numbers.

A state such as Arizona, does have 3rd parties on the ballot. So the likelihood of a Trump victory in that state remains fairly strong. 

However a seemingly safe state such as Georgia, without the 3rd party option could possibly edge into toss-up or even Biden, given the 8.1% polling for Kennedy.

Maine would likely move back into 1 for Trump and 3 for Biden.

Nevada, which seems to be in the Trump camp, would narrow, but still be in the Trump camp, considering Kennedy's 8.9% polling.

North Carolina, with Kennedy at 8.4%, could become toss-up.

Pennsylvania, with Kennedy at 8.3%, would almost certainly be in the Biden camp, but still in toss-up range.

Virginia, would almost certainly... moved back solidly, into the Biden Camp.

Wisconsin is at 7.5% polling for Kennedy, and would throw the state into the toss-up category.

If Kennedy and other 3rd parties are on the ballot in all the battleground states, the Trump lead of 301~195 in electoral votes over Biden seems quite plausible, with 270 being the magic number.

However, as it stands right now on ballot availability, the Trump lead narrows to 242~207, over Biden.

Hence the "save democracy" campaign, while simultaneously obstructing democracy.

Finally, a word about pollsters. If pollster A, interviews 1000 people and states one candidate leads, by a certain number of points... when they do their next set of interviews, is it the same 1000 people, a different group of people, or a mix. Does pollster B, interview the same group of people, etc.

The results of one poll, does not provide an accurate gauge. Several polls together might give a clearer picture. Then there is the accuracy of such polls, compared to real election results. 

So, there have not been a lot of state level polls to gauge which direction the race is going... post debate. So beware of polls saying this candidate is gaining or losing ground. Still too early. Maybe by end of July, there will be enough data. But who knows what will happen in the next 17 days, let alone the final 114 days before election.

This was way too long a post. Gotta cut back!!

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 7th Edition

Another week, with post debate polls starting to trickle in. Oddly, there is some truth to the idea that Biden may have weathered the storm, but that doesn't mean he is sailing to victory.

Biden is not really in any better shape, than before the debate. As for the impact, that will require a couple more weeks of data, or possibly more. One single polling outlet is not sufficient and the polls must really be state level to gauge the Electoral votes.

Currently, my numbers indicate a Trump lead of +0.6% over Biden in national polling. 538 has Trump at 42.0%, and Biden at 39.9%. Pre-debate had Trump at 41.1%, to Biden at 40.9%. That might seem that Biden is falling, but he has risen from 39.7% and Trump has ease from 42.2%

In any case, this is far from the 52.1% to 41.5% lead, enjoyed by Biden... exactly 4 years ago.

Also, there is the Electoral Vote situation.

Michigan has moved back into toss-up range, but Maine has moved all 4 EVs into the Trump category. Additionally, New Hampshire has moved into toss-up range, after not being considered a battleground state. 

I have seen some reports of New Jersey and New Mexico as now being toss-ups. I truly have problems with those contentions and will stick with my methodology. That doesn't mean I am right.

So Biden has said he will not drop out of the race. Biden was losing before the debate and that has not changed. The debate has given cover to democrats to alter the ticket, or so they think. Aside from the problem of being a defender of democracy and overlooking the primary votes, they have significant other problems, imho.

Starting with Kamala Harris. Is she a liability to the ticket or the savior? I see no evidence that she would improve the chances, although a V.P. selection could help. Still, she would be the top of the ticket and the knives will come out.

Michelle Obama's name has been pitched, but she has denied interest. She would have the Harris dilemma to contend with, as well.

Replacing Biden and Harris as nominees... would result in major dilemmas.

Its almost as if the Trump convictions were supposed to sink Trump in the polls, and when that did not happen... Biden was thrown to the wolves. He could have easily stated it would be inappropriate to debate a convicted felon. 

Yet now he is getting sage advice from a different convicted felon.

It is so sad, that this has become so comical. But maybe it has always been this way, and the hyper sensitivity of today is the main factor.

A couple of quotes from 100 years past, from H.L. Mencken...

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."

"On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

 'Nuff said!