Review of EIA Weekly Report for 6-2-2022

Yes, gasoline prices continue to rise, as inventories are below seasonal 5 year averages... as are distillates and crude.

Refineries are working at normal or above, with gasoline and distillate consumption down and crude consumption up. Yet the prices for gasoline and diesel are going up... oh yes exports.

There is really no global slowdown in demand, although U.S. usage indicates some demand destruction. Those that import a lot of energy are trying to build up inventories, unless you know what were to happen. On the other hand, the U.S. can absorb some of that excess demand, depending on how much the consumer can handle in price increases. Yes, I do believe $5 national average on gasoline is just around the corner... as in just days.

Beginning in March, the U.S. began exporting more than importing and the exports have been large enough to state the U.S. is a net exporter since Mid October of 2021. Wrap your head around that fact.

Now for LNG... We are exporting at capacity and adding processing capacity. This is impacting Natural Gas prices in the U.S., as well as prices in Europe.

As can be seen, the UK v Dutch pricing has diverged, due to UK capacity for processing LNG back to gas. UK appears to be capping off inventories and shipping excess to mainland Europe.

In the U.S., we can expect natural gas prices to rise, as further processing capacity for LNG is brought on line. None of this bodes well for U.S. inflation, but everything else is going up, so why not. 

As for good news, the anticipated soon to be named T.S. Alex, appears to be barely a T.S. and will impact southern Florida. Maybe not good news for southern Florida, but stays away from the very sensitive gulf coast refineries. I hope that lasts, as it would be a game changer, in my opinion... and not a good one.

I really do wish there was some good news for the consumer. Just remember, this is all transitory [sarc].

Weather or Not! Why Not!

3 times this past week, the notion of a tropical storm or hurricane has popped up on a certain weather forecasting model. It was the only model to indicate this potential and subsequent models did not reflect any such movements.

For the record this one and only model indicated a storm likely moving across the Florida panhandle on the 24th. A day later... nothing. A couple of days later, the indication was a storm likely moving over New Orleans on the 29th. Then nothing. Today it shows a strong disturbance just south of Cuba. Tomorrow will likely show nothing. Only one model has shown anything... all others nothing.

I am NOT forecasting a hurricane or a tropical storm in the near future... or even one at all. My point is about how 50% of the USA petroleum refining capacity is along the Gulf Coast, as well as LNG terminals.

Current inventories of crude and the various petroleum products are below the seasonal range of normal inventory. A gander at the weekly report from the EIA.gov quickly indicates the dilemma we are in. To clarify what below the seasonal range actually means... lowest of the past 5 years, based on this time of year.

We've had massive storms in the past, but were able to weather the storm, due to sufficient inventories. It would not take much of a storm to skyrocket prices from current levels. The potential for a tropical storm along the Gulf Coast, is not an unreasonable forecast for sometime this summer. 

That is my point, weather you like it or not.