The Fine Art of Rubber Necking

Clearly, my user name is not my real name, so I am guilty as sin, for whatever follows. However, in my defense, it is not difficult to uncover my real identity. It is sad that anyone would bother, but some people do lead sad lives.

What I am about to write... is about rubber necking. Traditionally rubbernecking is considered as staring at objects or accidents, etc. However, there is also the art of quickly turning our heads or ignoring things we could and or should do something about. 

For purposes of this diatribe, it is the action or rather non action of someone that sees something wrong or incorrect... then quickly turns their head to ignore. Invariably this person will then post on social media that experience and lament the failings of our society. 

As we ignore the world around us and fail to invest ourselves in that world, the world becomes more uncivilized. If I can repeatedly get away with some uncivilized act, it becomes part of my style and begins to seep into the actions of others. 

As we continue this tradition of ignoring wrongs, ills, misbehavior, etc., we can continue to see incivility increase. But hey... it does give us something to post on social media. I would simply ask the poster to stop lamenting about the decline of our society after observing some indiscretion with out actually commenting at that time and place of occurrence. 

Beware, mentioning this on social media might bring scorn down around you, by people that rubber neck in their actual lives and hide behind their screennames. 

Do you see the problem? 

Are Things That Bad, Or Is It an Election Year?

Famines, war, poverty, inflation... everywhere we turn the news is terrible and we are all going to die, or so it seems.

Is it really that bad, or is it an election year? Over 100 years ago, a guy named Mencken stated...

I remember as a child, being told to finish my meal... as there were children starving in Asia. As a child, I had no idea where Asia was, or even cared. I mean I had trouble distinguishing which Washington had the U.S. Capitol. The little town a few miles away from me, or the state. That whole D.C. thing, simply escaped me. 

Frankly, even today... that whole D.C. thing escapes me. I have learned where it is and have even been there, but is there anyone that can really make sense of that place? It seems rare, that anything happens... which makes sense. 

What was the last thing you can point to?

As for famines, wars, poverty, inflation... has anything meaningful been done to seriously address any of those things?

Which is probably why I focus on things directly and/or indirectly impacting me and trying to plan for that proverbial worst case scenario, while hoping for the best. That's about all, any of us can do, in my humble opinion. 

Review of EIA Weekly Report for 6-2-2022

Yes, gasoline prices continue to rise, as inventories are below seasonal 5 year averages... as are distillates and crude.

Refineries are working at normal or above, with gasoline and distillate consumption down and crude consumption up. Yet the prices for gasoline and diesel are going up... oh yes exports.

There is really no global slowdown in demand, although U.S. usage indicates some demand destruction. Those that import a lot of energy are trying to build up inventories, unless you know what were to happen. On the other hand, the U.S. can absorb some of that excess demand, depending on how much the consumer can handle in price increases. Yes, I do believe $5 national average on gasoline is just around the corner... as in just days.

Beginning in March, the U.S. began exporting more than importing and the exports have been large enough to state the U.S. is a net exporter since Mid October of 2021. Wrap your head around that fact.

Now for LNG... We are exporting at capacity and adding processing capacity. This is impacting Natural Gas prices in the U.S., as well as prices in Europe.

As can be seen, the UK v Dutch pricing has diverged, due to UK capacity for processing LNG back to gas. UK appears to be capping off inventories and shipping excess to mainland Europe.

In the U.S., we can expect natural gas prices to rise, as further processing capacity for LNG is brought on line. None of this bodes well for U.S. inflation, but everything else is going up, so why not. 

As for good news, the anticipated soon to be named T.S. Alex, appears to be barely a T.S. and will impact southern Florida. Maybe not good news for southern Florida, but stays away from the very sensitive gulf coast refineries. I hope that lasts, as it would be a game changer, in my opinion... and not a good one.

I really do wish there was some good news for the consumer. Just remember, this is all transitory [sarc].

CPAP and BiPAP

Courtesy of CPAP.com

So, I have been using a BiPAP for over 14 years and while not an expert, I have a basic understanding of why I am using one. 

It's about the oxygen and lack thereof, which was diagnosed as possible cause of Mitral Valve deterioration. Taking the sleep test indicated my oxygen levels were dangerously low during sleep. No amount of checking with a pulse oximeter would reveal this, unless it was recording while sleeping. Because it would give good readings while awake.

However, I did experience grogginess, fell asleep quite easily, and had difficulty keeping my mind focused. I even had the swimmy headed thing going on. 

It was quite a chore to adapt to wearing a mask and I tried several. I would lie awake for hours and worried about loss of sleep. Granted I would eventually grow too tired to stay awake and drift off. 

The changes were gradual, and it took me a few months to grasp what was taking place. My need to frequently get up in the middle of the night to urinate... subsided. My daytime grogginess cleared up rather quickly. That swimmy headed thing was gone, and I became more focused. Oh yes, I stopped those middle of the night trips. That was explained to me in a way I will not repeat here. 

Apparently even my tiny brain requires oxygen, and it wasn't getting it. Before being diagnosed, I thought I was experiencing the early signs of dementia. Turns out I was wrong, although I may be in that stage now. Not an expert in that area, but I do wonder if this may be an undiagnosed leading cause of Dementia or Alzheimer's.

In any case, don't be too quick to downplay the idea of sleep apnea. Don't be too quick to trash the mask after only a half-hearted try. The heart also needs oxygen, as well as various other organs. Your brain knows I am right... if it is properly oxygenated.

I can only state my journey with Apnea. 

A Cautionary Tale About Believing Everything You Read!

Very recently, I ran across an article posted to one of those social media sites I frequent.

I will not link to the article, but the gist was the average retirement income for those over 65 had fallen from $56,632 in 2019, to  $46,360 in 2020. The source for that data was the Census Bureau.

As the drop was so large, I decided to investigate further, rather than accept the analysis of a financial planner. 

It was a case of mixing apples and oranges, as the 2019 number was for the age group 65~74, while the 2020 number included everyone over 65.

I visited the Census Bureau website and downloaded the 2019 and 2020 data. Here is a snapshot of each...

2019...

2020...

Of course all this is 2019 with pre-Covid and 2020 with Covid. There is a drop in each category.

Overall, the picture looked like this for 2019...

And here is 2020...

I could go on about how the economy was still struggling to fully recover in 2020, as it had not met GDP output for end of 2019... in either real terms or nominal.

Not real sure why the apples to oranges comparison came about, but it serves to point out the need to carefully parse the underlying data... prior to jumping to conclusions and certainly before publishing as fact. 

End of the Month... April 2022 PCE, 2nd est. GDP, and Other Stuff.

 

The final results for April data is now in and it looks like a mixed bag. Sure the headline numbers are indicating deceleration of inflation, but there are still problem areas. The most important being my price index, which is increasing. I have highlighted some areas of acceleration of inflation. 

Remember that energy was flat for April and has risen in May, which comes out next month. The deceleration of inflation in overall CPI indicates a potential repeat of the April headline number. The core, which is without food and energy, indicates some moderation. We'll just have to wait. 

The Personal Income and Outlays for April came out and it isn't stellar in my opinion. Personal consumption expenditures were up 0.7% for the inflation adjusted month to month. The disposable personal income was flat on the inflation adjusted month to month. Credit cards anyone?

Somehow the concept of driving 120 mph on an ice covered road comes to mind, with a slight decrease in overall speed. Then the FED is slightly tapping the brakes. What could go wrong?

In other news, the 2nd release of the 1st Quarter GDP indicated a bit less than the Advance. I have read some comments about a potential negative 2nd quarter as meaning we are in a recession. WRONG! It is just a symptom. 2020 saw two quarters and no recession, as discussed by the gurus of such stuff. After debating most of 2008, it was finally decided that December of 2007, was the start of the great recession. The first back to back negative quarters were 3rd and 4th Quarter of 2008. So clearly more information than GDP numbers are a factor.

As for the 2nd quarter GDP, which will not be released until end of July... there is ample reason to believe it will not be negative. The trade numbers were a major hit to the 1st quarter GDP. The dollar has strengthened, which should reduce the deficit numbers, the inventory builds should be increasing, which is a plus for GDP, although troubling. The trade deficit should also be waning, due to a potential China slowdown.

So a positive number for GDP 2nd Quarter is in the offing... but that does not mean the economy is doing peachy keen. That expected positive inventory gain, could be a sign of demand destruction. With energy prices taking a bite out of disposable income, consumers will likely dial back in other areas.

So the outlook is a mixed bag in my opinion. A mixed bag is better than all negative, so there is some room for optimism. 

Have a good holiday!!

Continuing a Time Honored Tradition... An Old Person Rant!

 

I am old and therefore expected to rant like an old person... so here goes.

The world is changing and not in a good way. Familiar with this mantra? It is the fall back for most of us older folks, yet ignores the same thing being said by seniors back when we were "young."

I recall my Father ranting about today's youth and the downfall of America's values. My Grandfather was also in the vicinity and recalled how he thought the same thing a generation earlier. My Grandfather was born in 1888 and my father in 1911. My grandfather probably looked around circa 1930 and was justifiably concerned about the way things were going. My father probably looked around in the late 60s and was of the same frame of thought.

I didn't have a lot to complain about in the 90s, when my kids were exiting their teenage years. But lo and behold, there is plenty to rant about now. The problem I have is which group to blame. My grandchildren, my children, or I. 

This probably falls on me, just like it fell on previous generations of the past. WE set in motion what is the reality of today. 

Unfortunately, there is not a lot my generation can do at this point and will need to rely on the younger generations. Whether they rise to the challenge or ignore it, as done by previous generations, is up to them. They are creating the world they wish to live in, which might not be my first choice. 

In summary, I need to step back and stop complaining about how the world is going to hell in a hand basket. It is my world that is doing that... not theirs.

However, the realization of that does not prohibit me from whining and complaining. That is about all I have left... so just roll your eyes, shake your head, and give me some space. Afterall, this will be you a generation from now. 😊