Natural Gas Inventory Report, May 12, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

As usual the above graph does not capture the whole story by region. The west coast is still lagging, but beginning to gain ground. That should continue as west coast nat/gas pricing has fallen below the Henry Hub, which is now one of the highest in the U.S., which is at lows not seen since 2020.

European and United Kingdom storage continues to gain and remain at seasonally elevated levels.

The pricing for UK and TTF nat/gas, continues above "normal".

So far... so good!!

Producer Price Index May 2023 release for April Data.

The BLS has released the April Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.4 percent in March and were unchanged in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. 

In April, 80 percent of the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods advanced 0.2 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.2 percent in April after inching up 0.1 percent in March. For the 12 months ended in April, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.4 percent.

Certainly, the PPI increases have slowed, but not sure all has been reflected in the CPI. Historically, the CPI is has risen slightly faster that PPI, yet the past 3 years has seen the PPI outdistance the CPI. This is reflected in the following graph.

The chart indicates the comparison of that 39 month period, compared to the preceding 109 months.

Reverting to normal requires a negative PPI and/or continued inflation for the next few months. 

It will take most of the year, before normal takes places, imho. 

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, May 10, 2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down -5.5¢ this week, to $3.531. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.374. I eventually projected a -10.2¢ decrease, and missed the mark. Those falling prices might be over, although not a sharp rise seems in the offing. Maybe +2.6¢ for the coming week.

Consumption increased +0.2% from last week, and stands 1.1% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).

The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +98.6M barrels. The import/export numbers have really not changed that much over the past few weeks and this past week showed more imports than exports, by 700K. 

Where will pump prices be next week? As stated earlier, maybe another +2.6¢ upward, or around $3.55.

That is a darn sight better than last year, which was about $4.50 a gallon 1 year ago, next week. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - May 10 2023

Today's EIA.gov report. 

Crude stocks jumped +2.9M barrels, from last week, and remains down -2.6% from the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +2.2% above normal.

Distillates fell -4.2M Barrels; and Gasoline inventories slid -3.1M barrels. The SPR fell another -2.9M barrels. 

WTI has risen to $72.92, compared to $68.41, one week ago, and $96.87, one year ago. 

Refinery output edged up on a weekly basis, and edged above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 645.6M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022.

Overall, crude stocks remain quite healthy, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 29.3, compared to last year's 27.1 days.

Distillates remain steady to last year, despite this week's inventory drop.

BLS releases latest Real Earnings... May 10, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.5 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from April 2022 to April 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

 Now for some charts...

This chart indicates the hourly earnings are back to December wages, which is one penny below February, 2020.

The following chart indicates 8¢ a week below Feb, 2020.

Up 14¢ an hour...

Up $5.52 weekly, from Feb. 2020.

As real wages are not yet back to Feb. 2020 levels, and is not keeping up with inflation... it is hard to imagine the claim that labor is causing inflation. In some sectors, but not overall, imho.

 

 

CPI Latest DATA results, May 10, 2023

The BLS report was released this morning and it was a shade below consensus estimates. (historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, followed by increases in the index for used cars and trucks and the index for gasoline. The increase in the gasoline index more than offset declines in other energy component indexes, and the energy index rose 0.6 percent in April. The food index was unchanged in April, as it was in March. The index for food at home fell 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

For the record, some rounding makes this appear much better. Last month's 5.0% was 4.98%, and this month's 4.9% is 4.93%.

The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent over the last 12 months. (5.52%)

That compared to 5.6%, last month. (5.59%)

My own personal CPI...

Note that both CPI-W and Chained CPI edged up.

So once again, I should be happy with my index showing only 3.8%, but that is misleading. Remember, that COLA adjustment that came into effect in January, 2023? That made us whole back to 3rd quarter, 2021.

Any COLA for January, 2024, will most likely be in the >3.4% range. That 3.8% is operating at a loss.

As always, I keep track of my expenses, weighting, etc. Yours may be different.  

West Coast Natural Gas Inventories improving, but still below seasonal norms.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report on Thursday.

Quick check of pricing...

For those interested in a few EU countries and the UK, these are the latest stats...

Clearly the UK seems to have a need for more storage, but the UK does get considerable volumes from their own gas fields, as well as having LNG infrastructure. 

Overall, the EU currently is sitting with 61.04% of capacity. This is significantly above of last year and even the 5 year average.