This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-07-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) slipped from last report's $3.827, to $3.803. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.764, with today's price now +1.0% above year ago.

Consumption of gasoline continues to edge up +0.3% over last week, and 2.4% above one year ago level. 

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid another -6.3M barrels, from last week, and is -4.6% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -0.8% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory rose +679K barrels; and Gasoline inventories slipped about -2.7M barrels. Distillates (-12.3%,-3.0%) and Gasoline (-3.3%, -2.2%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 800K barrels this past week. This is the 5th straight week for increases, which are the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $86.70, compared to $81.74 (+6.1%), one week ago, and $83.07, one year ago (+4.4%).

Refinery edged up on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 848M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +18M barrels this past week. (Distillates account for approximately 77%.

Overall, crude stocks are beginning to wane, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 25.0, to last year's 26.4 days.

Gasoline exports/imports were about even this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 108.4M barrels being exported over imports.

Next Wednesday will be the August CPI release. With the motor fuel index jumping nearly 7% in August, expect the report to say something like half of the increase being energy. Having said that... +0.8% could be a month to month increase for the overall. 

In any case, stock up on dramamine to offset the enormous spin about to take place. /s

EU & UK NatGas Inventory Report, September 01, 2023

Data from the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory report...

While up in most areas of Europe, Austria -.01%, Czech Republic -.02%, and the UK down -1.63%.

Pricing finds the U.S. back to normal, with the EU and the UK still elevated, as will likely continue for quite a period of time.

U.S. NatGas Inventory Report, August 31, 2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report today.

The Pacific Region is now slightly ahead of year ago numbers, but still below the 5 year average.

The South Central Region slipped below one year ago levels, but is still above 5 year average.

EIA.GOV, via SNL Energy

Nothing dramatic taking place, so steady as she goes, would be the best description, imho.

Review of July data and the August PCE Release

Some ups and some down in the latest release from the BEA. (red revised down, green revised up).

Chained dollar disposable income was revised down for April and June, with a negative print on July.

However, the chained dollar PCE was revised down for March and May, with upward revisions in April and June. 

It seems evident that savings AND debt are currently driving the economy. How long that can last is the big question.

Then there is the matter of PCE Excluding Food & Energy. If the target is 2%, then there is a way to go, given the forecast for August is at 4%. Years ago, when the PCE ex food and energy was failing to achieve even 2%, there was discussion of moving the target to 4%. 

That hasn't happened, so how can it be expected for the FED to ease off the interest rates? 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2023

We are now 28 months with the PCE ex food and energy above the 2% mark, and 17 months into the FED increasing rates. 10 months out, with the aforementioned halting its rise. 

The chart below indicates some problems still within the system. Last month had just one category in pink. 

We are at the end of August and its data will likely be similarly ugly. Let's hope for some relief in September. 

Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 2nd estimate

The BEA released the 2nd estimate of 2Q-2023 GDP...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending.

Here is a screenshot of the data page... 

Probably the most interesting thing is the GDI of +0.5%, which is the first positive, since 3rd Quarter of 2022.

Gasoline consumption per latest EIA data, August 30, 2023

Gasoline prices (per AAA) slipped from last report's $3.845, to $3.827. One year ago the price had fallen to $3.844, and was on its downward trajectory... into the early September lull, about $3.80. It rose a bit, then fell back to the December low.

It has edged upward, by 0.9¢ the past 3 days. The market is pointing toward a bit more upward movement, but that remains to be seen.

Consumption steadied at last week's pace, which is +2.3% above year ago level. In theory, consumption should begin to taper off in September. 

Crude and Petroleum Product Inventories - August 30 2023

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks slid another -10.6M barrels, from last week, and is -3.4% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is nearly +0.4% above normal.

Distillates inventory rose +1.2M barrels; and Gasoline inventories slipped about -214K barrels. Distillates (-13%,-2.6%) and Gasoline (-3.2%, -1.4%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR increased another 600K barrels this past week. This is the 4th straight week for increases, which are the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $81.74, compared to $78.96 (+3.5%), one week ago, and $89.03, one year ago (-8.2%).

Refinery output slipped on a weekly basis, and is slightly above above year ago levels

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 829.9M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. It jumped +11.8M barrels this past week. (Distillates account for approximately 77%.

Overall, crude stocks remain somewhat decnt, compared to this time last year, with days supply at 25.4, to last year's 25.5 days.