BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 12, 2023

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

I had readings of 3.6%~3.9%, so the 3.7% was within that range.

The past 12 months...

My own CPI...

The C.O.L.A. was announced at 3.2%.

The results, compared to average S.S. income and various CPI methods. Once the average monthly S.S. is adjusted for Medicare Part B, the result is 2.9%.

Then compare the average 3 month of each CPI method, yields the headline CPI of 3.5%; Chained CPI at 3.6%; R-CPI-E at 4.1%; the end result of S.S. monthly minus projected Medicare part B... stands in sharp contrast to actual inflationary pressures.

'Nuff said!

This concludes my monthly publication of CPI.

 

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 12, 2023

The BLS has released the latest Real Earnings Report.

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.2 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.  

Real average hourly earnings increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2022 to September 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.1-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

I added emphasis to the decrease.

Graph time...

I suppose the good news... the Real Hourly is still +2¢ above pre covid, and down -2¢ from last month.

Real Weekly is +$2.08 above pre-covid, but down -71¢ from last month, AND... down -$1.10 from July.

The working stiffs are 14¢ above pre-covid on an hourly basis, yet down -1¢ from previous month, as well as down -7¢ from July.

The working stiffs are $5.43 above pre-covid on a weekly basis, yet down -59¢ from last month, and down -$2.45 from July.

The bad news, is all areas had a setback in inflation adjusted earnings in September. Let's hope that does not continue.

This closes out my publication of this data, although I will continue tracking. I'll just keep my thoughts to myself... unless I can't help myself.

Producer Price Index October release with September 2023 Data

The BLS has released the September Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases) 

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest increase since moving up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. 

Leading the increase in the final demand index in September, prices for final demand goods rose 0.9 percent. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in September, the fourth consecutive advance. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent.

As is often the case... there were revisions to previous month's data, so don't be surprised if this month's data is revised next month. The size of July's data was a bit surprising however. When that data came out, it was considered above expectations at +0.3%. A couple of month's later, it was revised to +0.6%, without any discussion.

In any case, I will continue to track, but this should wrap up publishing my thoughts.

Natural Gas Summary, UK, EU, USA... Week Ending 9-29-2023

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly report. 

At long last, all regions are above both last year and 5 year average. Hooray!

EIA.GOV via SNL Energy

Now for a look at The European Union and United Kingdom.

[The reason for this observation is LNG, which has introduced the prospect of U.S. Natural Gas prices being affected by global demand for LNG. The EU and UK serve as a benchmark for these demand issues.]

Time to wrap up the publishing of this weekly natural gas summary...

Review of August data and the September PCE Release

Yep, today's report was positive, with an uptick of +0.4%. That being in current dollars and when adjusted for inflation became... -0.2% for the month to month. The good news was the year to year inflation adjusted +0.1%. 

I did not denote the various changes from previous month's release, so but can be seen in previous publications.

It should be noted that multiple adjustments were made to previous readings, as indicated below...

The FED chain type report of PCE, excluding food and energy was adjusted to 2017 from previous 2012.

The 3.9% current, hearkens back to May of 2021, when things were transitory. The signs are pointing downward, but that 3.0% target remains distant, imho.

The scorecard for this month looks like this.

If I were grading this report, it would be 47.1%, compared to last month's 52.9%. Translation: My confidence in inflation heading towards 2.0% is not as great as some are predicting. 

Quick Review of The GDP report 2Q-2023, 3rd estimate

First off, the base year for chained dollars is now 2017, instead of the previous 2012.

Secondly, there were revisions in past quarters, or updates. This is done annually. 

• 2023 Quarter one GDP was revised upward, from 2.0% annualized, to 2.2% annualized.
• 2023 Quarter one GDI was revised upward from -1.8% annualized to 0.5% annualized.

There are other changes, but that was a sampling.

While the chained dollar report for last month, based on 2012, showed the Real GDP at 20.387T, the new report based on 2017, is now 22.225T. 

However, there were significant reductions in the report, with Durable Goods being reduced, both on the personal consumption level and imports. 

Clearly there were large adjustments elsewhere to overcome those changes, such as in personal consumption services (quite large), Fixed Investment and Government consumption and Net exports of goods and services.

Nothing really out of line from expectations, although the Personal Consumption Expenditures for Goods was quite a drop from Quarter one. However, it is still positive and the drop was not quite a surprise, as the Monthly PCE report has been screaming a sharp decline.

This Week in Petroleum Summary 9-27-2023, per EIA.GOV

Gasoline prices (per AAA) fell from last report's $3.875, to $3.832. One year ago the price was $3.747, and was rising higher into Mid October's peak, then heading for the December low of $3.096.

Consumption edged down -2.5% from previous week and appears to be going into the fall season decline, with the year over year up just +0.7%. 

Data per the EIA weekly report. 

Crude stocks decreased -2.2M barrels, from last week, and is -4.5% below the 5 year seasonal average. It should be noted the 5 year average includes the abnormal 2020 and 2021 number. Otherwise, the current inventory is -1.6% below that adjusted 5 year average.

Distillates inventory rose +340K barrels; and Gasoline inventories eose +1027K barrels. Distillates (-10.2%,-1.5%) and Gasoline (-0.9%, -0.2%) are both below 5 year and 3 year adjusted average inventories.

The SPR decreased -250K barrels this past week. Breaking a 7th consecutive week streak for increases, which were the first since January, 2021.

WTI is $93.72, compared to $90.27 (+3.8%), one week ago, and $81.24 one year ago (+15.4%).

Refinery slipped on a weekly basis, but remains above year ago levels.

For anyone interested, the U.S. has exported 873M barrels of crude and petroleum products, more than imported, since March 1, 2022. That number increased by 12M barrels this past week. 

Gasoline exports/imports saw a net increase of 728K barrels this past week, with the tally since March 1, 2022, being 113.7M barrels being exported over imports.

Despite the surge in crude prices this week, domestic demand points towards pump prices drifting lower. However, that may be based on hope, rather than real time data.

This wraps up my publication of the weekly petroleum summary. I will continue to track, but not publish.