This Week in Petroleum Summary February 14th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Mixed messages on consumption.

Pump prices are rising, probably towards that $3.50ish level in the next couple of months.

Refinery operation slipped this report.

Crude inventories rose +12.0M barrels; distillates down -1.9M barrels; gasoline down +3.7M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added the distillate/diesel category to reflect the volumes. Distillates per barrel are where the most profit for refineries lie. The current crack spread is 27.51 per barrel, with $14.97 coming from distillate and $12.55 from gasoline. 

That's all for now. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - February 13, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index.

While the chart below shows the past 12 months, it should be noted the end of 2022 also saw a downward trend, prior to 2023 rises. The January number reverses the 2023 fall downward trend and achieves an all time high.

On the other hand, my own personal CPI rate has continued upward, with a decent jump last month.

That is 2.3% annual, with a sharp 0.6% increase for January. The reason mainly being under the medical category and the fact it takes up much more weight, than the BLS weighting does. Hopefully that trend doesn't continue, but after all the "medical" adjustment to the CPI now finished... look out! 

As a side note the R-CPI-E was up 0.6% for the month and 3.5% annual. (R-CPI-E= Research consumer price index for Americans age 62 years of age and older).

Also, the gasoline index is now popping, after actually falling in January. Again... look out!!

As for Real Earnings.

Weekly wages seem to be slowing for some reason, which is reflected across the board, to the working stiffs.

Not a really bad report, but be on the outlook for any worrying trends to develop, imho.

Still, the overall seems to be easing off, even if a hiccup here and there. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary February 7th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Pump Prices are drifing in a narrow range, with not much upward pressure... yet! 

Overall...

Crude inventories rose +5.5M barrels; distillates down -3.2M barrels; gasoline down +3.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

I added distillates (diesel) to the chart. I had read a rather hysterical article about the impending distillate shortage, as distillates were down 5% from 5 year average... yada, yada. 

So yes, distillates are down -5.1% from historical 5 year average, but that five years includes that covid period, where consumption cratered and inventories skyrocketed. 

Discounting that period, the reading is -1.7%. Considering the refiners make more money from diesel than gasoline... I would expect refining operating capacity percent to rise. Given current crude mixes, this should keep gasoline prices in check, even if diesel rises slightly. 

We'll just have to wait and see. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 31st, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption slightly above year ago, yet down very slightly from last week. Pump Prices are drifting higher.

The pump prices do remain down from this time last year.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +1.2M barrels; distillates down -2.5M barrels; gasoline up +1.2M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Everything seems to be quiet, even with the news about middle east, Ukraine, etc. I think the energy market has rebalanced.

Review of December 2023 data, 4Q GDP, PCE and personal income

Alas, 2023 reports have concluded. The GDP's 4Q advance reading indicates a sterling 3.1% rise. I will make mention of the 5 year Quinquennial revision from 2012 dollars to 2017 dollars. As would be expected the numbers jumped 9.0%. I can't help but notice the big drag on GDP of net exports of good and services, slid a whopping -26.7%. 

Even under the revised numbers, that latter component fell another -5.9% from one year ago.

PCE, which is typically 68.7% of GDP under the 2017 revision, made up 58.3% of that yearly increase. 

Which gives pause to the notion of the consumer driving those GDP numbers, when in fact they appear to have been a bit of drag.

Gross private investment, also underperformed. The real over achievers were government and net exports of good and services. 

It is what it is.

PCE ex. food and energy ease from 3.4% to 3.2%. The overall remained unchanged.

All in all, a decent end to the 2023 years.

This Week in Petroleum Summary January 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption down, which is likely expected... considering the wide spread winter weather. Additionally, it is possible that refinery operations were impacted as well. It would take a couple more weeks of data to tell the tale.

Prices do seem ready to rise, but still... more data required.

The overall...

Crude inventories fell -9.2M barrels; distillates down -1.4M barrels; gasoline up +4.9M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

Not sure of the impact of weather on refining, consumption, etc. Time will tell, imho.

My electricity bills over time (January, 2024 Edition)

It is January, and the monthly bill has arrived.

The year over year rolling 12 month has seen a decline of -8.5%. HOWEVER... December of 2022 was frigid, at least compared to December of this year. January has gotten the heat running much more. It is keeping up and its not as cold as that December, 2022 period. At least not yet!