A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggests a moderate increase in consumption, with a +1.4¢ pump price increase.

The consistent decline in gasoline stocks seems to be elevating the projections for pump prices, with last week's forecast of mid $3.60ish, back to near $3.70, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.3M barrels; gasoline stocks fell by -4.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $29.81, to $30.10. Gasoline at $18.73 from last week's $18.86. Distillates at $11.37, compared to last week's $10.95.

Despite the nervous nellies attempting to spook the market, this is not really so bad, imho.

Review of February 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The overall PCE edged upward, on annual basis, with PCE ex food and energy staying flat. 

Of course, the official got revised up for January, which indicates a difference from my report...

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2024

Note the revisions as always, and I would recommend tracking the data monthly. Revisions are normal part of the cycle, as more data comes in. Recently however... previous data seems to come in a tad lower, which results in inflated current estimates. This was not always the case.

As for GDP, it seems to have edged up for 2023-4Q. I am not going to beat that horse over trade deficit numbers. I will simply state that prior to transfer of data from 2012 dollars into 2017 dollars, the GDP was marginally better. That adjustment amounts to about 1.9% annualized. So just take that with a grain of salt, as it is just my opinion.

One remaining bit of info can be found here. While I might harangue about the national debt, the 2023 year end net international investment was released. UGLY, at almost $20T. THAT IS WHAT WE OWE OTHER COUNTRIES.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IIPUSNETIQ

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggesting a moderation of consumption this past week, which is also seen in steadying of pump prices, with a +2¢ rise.

Current projections indicate somewhat of an easing in upward prices, with last week's forecast of upper $3.60ish, moving to mid $3.60ish, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.2M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +1.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fallen from last week's $32.24, to $29.81. Gasoline at $18.86 from last week's $20.09. Distillates at $10.95, compared to last week's $12.15.

All in all... a decent looking report, imho.

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 20th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Consumption continues to edge up with gasoline inventories declining... result prices moving upward at the pump. Current projection is upper $3.60ish, in the next few weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories slid -1.9M barrels; distillates up 600K barrels; gasoline down again at -3.4M barrels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has leveled off since last week to $32.24, with gasoline at $20.09 from last week's $20.05. Distillates at $12.15, compared to last week's $13.13.

This likely translates to additional upward pressure on gasoline, with diesel in a narrow band. 

That's all for this week.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- March, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada and EUstats release of February data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat.]

The rates are aligning in a narrow band across this spectrum.

However, it was NOT always the same, and the reasons for that are different, despite the gullible people fawning over, and blindly following their particular political puppeteer.

This is from the "beginning".

I will not bore you with the whys, but a quick look at some important issues...

Another month in the bag, with inflation seemingly slowing on an annual rate, but generally speaking, the month over month rate, when annualized... is well above the annual rate. More work to do?

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XII

It's been a couple of weeks, since the last review. Not a lot has changed, but there were some minor adjustments.

The republican edge in Arizona, narrowed a bit (-0.2%), but still in the slight range beyond the margin of error. 

The republican edge in Pennsylvania, increased a bit (+0.8), which moved it from the Toss Up category back to slight, with it being just above the margin of error.

The general election is 231 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 312 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 10EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.6%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Still a lot of time to go and many more polls to digest. UGH!!