PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

While the pump price edged up this past week, by 1.5¢... consumption data suggests a slight pullback.

Inventories were up across the board this past week.

Crude inventories rose +5.8M barrels; distillates rose +1.7M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +700K barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fell slightly from last week's $30.10, to $29.28. Gasoline at $18.79 from last week's $18.73. Distillates at $10.49, compared to last week's $11.37.

There continues to be an upward pressure on pump prices, with the current expectation at the low $3.70ish range. Diesel appears to be at a level range, with a potential of some slippage.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - April 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y and 0.6% on the month...

Taking a look at the report card...

Not real pretty, imho. It should be noted the release partially laid the surge in inflation at the feet of energy. True on a monthly basis, but Y/Y is up 2.1%, compared to the headline of 3.5%. Even food was at 2.2%, so start looking much harder within that CPI ex food and energy number of 3.8%.

Speaking of food...

Hidden in all those numbers and weightings... food away from home ease barely above January, 2021 numbers. That is NOT adjusted for inflation, but in current dollars. I can't help but think the entities making up the food away from home category... is struggling.  

As for Real Earnings.

An increase of 4¢ from February, 2020. It is important to adhere to that timing, as it was before the disruption of the workforce, cue to covid.

The overall report does show some stagnation for wage growth. Hard to make anything uplifting from the data. 

Sorry!

 

A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part XIII

Once again it has been a couple of weeks, and there were some changes to the forecast. Biden appears to be gaining ground in Pennsylvania, although I think it would still fall into Trump's column. However, the state is within the margin of error.

There has been quite a bit of hoopla over a poll that had Biden with 42% to 40% lead over Trump. That poll was released on 3-31 from Franklin Marshall College Polls. It should be noted the previous  Franklin Marshall College Poll, released on 1-31, had Biden with a much larger margin at 42% to 37%. In other words, Trump has narrowed the lead, yet somehow the Biden camp is claiming some kind of victory.

Not sure what the hoopla is about.

The general election is 215 days away, with the republicans currently with the electoral edge of 293 EVs, democrats with 216 EVs, and 29EVs in the toss-up category.

As for the national polls, they seem to have a very slight edge to Trump with 43.8%, and Biden at 43.5%. Remember, Biden had a significant lead (+9.0%) from the summer of 2020, up to the election... with the margin of votes being +4.5% in favor of Biden. 

Frankly, there have not been a lot of polls and even the ones for Pennsylvania seem to show mixed results. At this early juncture, Pennsylvania appears to be slipping in and out of toss-up status.

I failed to mention Kennedy, as he is yet to show any measurable attention, in regards to Electoral Votes. The margin for Trump/Biden remains virtually the same as polls with the addition of 3rd parties. This would be suggestive that 3rd parties, such as Kennedy's is equally splitting the major parties. 

That's all for now.

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 3rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggests a moderate increase in consumption, with a +1.4¢ pump price increase.

The consistent decline in gasoline stocks seems to be elevating the projections for pump prices, with last week's forecast of mid $3.60ish, back to near $3.70, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.3M barrels; gasoline stocks fell by -4.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $29.81, to $30.10. Gasoline at $18.73 from last week's $18.86. Distillates at $11.37, compared to last week's $10.95.

Despite the nervous nellies attempting to spook the market, this is not really so bad, imho.

Review of February 2024 data, 4Q GDP Revision, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary...

The overall PCE edged upward, on annual basis, with PCE ex food and energy staying flat. 

Of course, the official got revised up for January, which indicates a difference from my report...

As for the personal income arena... this is the link... https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2024

Note the revisions as always, and I would recommend tracking the data monthly. Revisions are normal part of the cycle, as more data comes in. Recently however... previous data seems to come in a tad lower, which results in inflated current estimates. This was not always the case.

As for GDP, it seems to have edged up for 2023-4Q. I am not going to beat that horse over trade deficit numbers. I will simply state that prior to transfer of data from 2012 dollars into 2017 dollars, the GDP was marginally better. That adjustment amounts to about 1.9% annualized. So just take that with a grain of salt, as it is just my opinion.

One remaining bit of info can be found here. While I might harangue about the national debt, the 2023 year end net international investment was released. UGLY, at almost $20T. THAT IS WHAT WE OWE OTHER COUNTRIES.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IIPUSNETIQ

This Week in Petroleum Summary March 27th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Data suggesting a moderation of consumption this past week, which is also seen in steadying of pump prices, with a +2¢ rise.

Current projections indicate somewhat of an easing in upward prices, with last week's forecast of upper $3.60ish, moving to mid $3.60ish, in the upcoming weeks.

The overall...

Crude inventories rose +3.2M barrels; distillates fell -1.2M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +1.3M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fallen from last week's $32.24, to $29.81. Gasoline at $18.86 from last week's $20.09. Distillates at $10.95, compared to last week's $12.15.

All in all... a decent looking report, imho.