This Week in Petroleum Summary April 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

Pump prices edged up +4.1¢ on the week, although down -1.3¢ from last year. Consumption is down from last year's mark, but slightly up from previous week.

Inventories were mixed in this week's report. Crude, +2.7M barrels; Distillates, -2.8M barrels; Gasoline, -1.2M barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has risen slightly from last week's $29.28, to $29.55. Gasoline at $19.37 from last week's $18.79. Distillates at $10.18, compared to last week's $10.49.

The upward pressure on pump prices has moderated, with the current expectation at near current levels, with potential for a drop, not being out of the realm of possibilities.

My electricity bills over time (April, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

On a 12 month rolling average, my costs are down 6.6% from previous year.

It is back to summer of 2022, but I don't really expect anymore slippage. One can hope, however.

4/15/2024, Advance Retail Sales Report for March Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, March Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above March 2023. Total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period were up 2.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2024 to February 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024, and up 3.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.5 percent (±2.1 percent) from March 2023.

The previous two months were revised upward. Here is the revision history...

The inflation adjusted retail sales...

Taking a look at retail sales (current dollars), with inflation adjusted (real dollars Feb. 2020).

The orange dots is the inflation adjusted, the line has been consistently just below the 600,000 mark (in millions)

Another comparison would be inflation adjusted as well.

Sales when adjusted for inflation, has remained relatively flat, after the recovery from covid, and vaccine rollout, plus stimulus. The timing for this, coupled with major issues in container transportation... resulted in the transitory phase of inflation.

Quite a good argument can be made the "transitory" inflation was exported, due to ocean going shipping problems. Of course, by mid to late 2021, energy became a predominant factor, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy issues. By that time, inflation became everywhere.

This month's report was pretty darn stellar, given the upward revisions of the previous two months. The standout was electronic shopping and mail order houses, which account for 17.3% of the total, but was a 45.4% of the overall annual gains, with the monthly rise being 64.7% of the total monthly gain.

There are problem areas, however. 

But we can take a good report, without muddying up the picture. At least in my humble opinion.

What is Social Security?

Quite often we hear of some group wanting to eliminate waste in social security, make adjustments to save social security, etc.

Generally speaking, most of us think of social security as that pension for old folks, with the trust funds etc. That is just part of social security. 

Social Security can be found in Title 42, Chapter 7 of the U.S. Code. There are currently, 21 sub chapters, with subchapter 2 being something called "Federal Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance. OASDI. That is the part we frequently refer to as social security, with trust funds. Medicare is subchapter 18, with associated trust funds. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is within subchapter 16.

But in reality, Social Security encompasses dozens of programs, which are in the form of block grants to states, as well as budgeted appropriations for all manner of items, from CHIPS, SNAP, Food Stamps, etc. 

Here is a partial listing of such social security items...

So when someone tries to stir up trouble with the mantra of illegals, migrants, etc. are collecting social security... it's not likely to be OASDI, but could be in the form of various other programs. 

When someone attempts to scare away the seniors with proclamations that a certain group are out to get your social security... just exactly what program within social security, are they referring.

There are a variety of proposals in congress to make adjustments to "social security", but aren't spun as social security.

Recently a proposal to address the claw back issue in Medicaid got some attention. Everyone thought it a good idea. Not a mention of social security, except the bill itself stated... 

A BILL To amend title XIX of the Social Security Act to repeal the requirement that States establish a Medicaid Estate Recovery Program and to limit the circumstances in which a State may place a lien on a Medicaid beneficiary’s property. 

Of course, the term social security was not used in the media, as it would have caused a kerfuffle if the media used the term "amend social security". 

I doubt things will change, as our masters fully understand our ignorance on the matter of "social security", and thus use it... for political purposes. 

PPI APR. 2024 release March 2024 Data

The BLS has released the March, 2024 Producer Price Index Report.  (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.

The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 2.8 percent.

Now for a graph and chart...

As stated, the 2.1% is the highest final demand number since April 2023. There seems to be some quibbling over that number, as related to gasoline prices. I should point out the "preliminary" tag on many items. So we can expect some more adjustments in those months.

I have read where the final demand would have been 2.4%, had the gasoline been correctly attributed. I don't think the annual would have seen that. However, the monthly figure is indeed laughable, and should have been near last month's figure.. 

The final demand is creeping up, which is troubling. Even more troubling is the final demand for food, which popped a healthy +0.8% on the month, which follows +1.1% for the previous month. Chew on that for awhile.

 

This Week in Petroleum Summary April 10th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.

While the pump price edged up this past week, by 1.5¢... consumption data suggests a slight pullback.

Inventories were up across the board this past week.

Crude inventories rose +5.8M barrels; distillates rose +1.7M barrels; gasoline stocks rose by +700K barrels.

Refinery output is still lagging against year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has fell slightly from last week's $30.10, to $29.28. Gasoline at $18.79 from last week's $18.73. Distillates at $10.49, compared to last week's $11.37.

There continues to be an upward pressure on pump prices, with the current expectation at the low $3.70ish range. Diesel appears to be at a level range, with a potential of some slippage.

BLS Data Dump. CPI - April 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 3.0% Y/Y and 0.6% on the month...

Taking a look at the report card...

Not real pretty, imho. It should be noted the release partially laid the surge in inflation at the feet of energy. True on a monthly basis, but Y/Y is up 2.1%, compared to the headline of 3.5%. Even food was at 2.2%, so start looking much harder within that CPI ex food and energy number of 3.8%.

Speaking of food...

Hidden in all those numbers and weightings... food away from home ease barely above January, 2021 numbers. That is NOT adjusted for inflation, but in current dollars. I can't help but think the entities making up the food away from home category... is struggling.  

As for Real Earnings.

An increase of 4¢ from February, 2020. It is important to adhere to that timing, as it was before the disruption of the workforce, cue to covid.

The overall report does show some stagnation for wage growth. Hard to make anything uplifting from the data. 

Sorry!