Review of June 2024 data, 2Q GDP, PCE and personal income

The monthly summary continues to improve, although PPI numbers continue to be a concern... going forward.

Regarding personal income, etc., read here.

The 2nd quarter GDP came in above expectations at 2.8% annualized. I was puzzled by the slower growth in Services at 2.2% annualized, which helps explain the 2.3% annualized for personal consumption. Durable goods up 4.6% and nondurables at 1.4%, both annualized.

Overall a good report, but I would be a bit concerned if fixed investment can continue its expansion, which is equipment driven, while inventories keep building.

As for the PCE excluding food and energy... not much movement. Granted the market is anticipating a rate cut in September... and it might be warranted. A string of rate cuts might not be so warranted, imho. 

We can start the cycle again for next month, with the likelihood of CPI being at or slightly above this past month's reading. 

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 24th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline increased +0.1¢ for the week, but remains below year ago levels, by -8.3¢, or -2.3%. Days supply fell to 24.5, from 25.5. For perspective... last year was 24.1.

Inventories were down across the board, with crude down -3.7M barrels; Distillates down -2.8M barrels; Gasoline down -5.6M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -3.9M barrels, with the SPR rising +690K barrels.

Despite the across the board draw, the total products is still ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has jumped up from last week's $22.35, to $25.05. Gasoline at $14.91 from last week's $13.56. Distillates to $10.13, compared to last week's $8.79.

While the spread moved upward, inventories fell, and consumption seems to have eased upward. A sure sign of higher pump prices, except it also indicates pump prices in a narrow band.

A Foray Into the 2024 Presidential Election, July 20th Edition

Contrary to reports, Biden could still possibly win in November, although his paths to success... are limited.

My own inexpert analysis, indicates a slight narrowing of national polls to +0.3 points. 538 has the Trump lead widening to +3.2 points from last week's +1.9. Interestingly, the Trump increase seems to be at the expense of Kennedy. This may be due to changing polling methods.

Generally, polls do nationwide, with a full slate of candidates, then extrapolate the data to meet the state specific. However, with the focus on "battleground" states, many polls are becoming state specific. Therefore, the state specific poll will match with state ballot. In many of the "battleground" states, Kennedy is not on the ballot, therefore, is not on the poll. 

In any case, Kennedy's polling has slipped from the usual 9.5%~10.5%, into the 8.6% range. That falloff, does match the Trump increase.

As for the nonsense of the democrats putting Kennedy on their ticket and easily beating Trump... that is overlooking the animosity of the dems regarding Kennedy. It would be a toss-up as to which they dislike more... Trump or Kennedy.

As stated, not much real change in the national numbers. For the state level...

Again, not much movement. At this point, Trump has the edge on Electoral votes. However, the Kennedy conundrum, still persists.

The states highlighted in yellow have given ballot access to Kennedy. So the question remains... if Kennedy is not on the ballot, which candidate will they then choose... or leave the ballot blanks.

Even with this conundrum, the edge goes to Trump, at 263~197. Several states, now leaning favorably to Trump, could ease back into toss-up, if Kennedy does not make the ballot... in those states.

It's fun to watch, and who knows that will happen this upcoming week. I might have to start all over from scratch. 

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- July, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following...

Despite the current similarities, the timeframe has a considerable difference.

There are multiple factors involved in sorting out the variances in when inflation started.

• Clogged ocean shipping containers in wrong places.
• Massive stimulus
• Vaccine rollout
• Ukraine Invasion
• Perception of definite strikes at ports for July, 2022
• Timing of rate hikes

As for political considerations, the stimulus rollout could be considered political and there is whether the Ukraine invasion would have taken place. All other items would likely have occurred, imho.

In any case, the inflation situation has largely abated, so it is time to give this type of review... a rest.

This Week in Petroleum Summary July 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline fell -2.5¢ for the week, and remains below year ago levels, by -5.3¢, or -1.5%. Days supply jumped to 25.5, from 24.7. For perspective... last year was 23.9.

Inventories were mixed, with crude down -4.9M barrels; Distillates up +3.5M barrels; Gasoline rose +3.3M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +11.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +650K barrels.

So despite the crude draw, the crude plus refined products and SPR was up strong.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread has eased further from last week's $23.36, to $22.35. Gasoline at $13.56 from last week's $13.97. Distillates to $8.79, compared to last week's $9.39.

That downward push does bode well for slightly more easing at the pump.

Advance Retail Sales Report- July 16, 2024

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, June Report.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023. Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Hard to keep up with the revisions, but here they are (click, to enlarge)...

It doesn't take much effort to see before revisions, the nominal figure is akin to the advance of September, 2023. 

However, when adjusted for inflation...

The quantity of goods is flat. Looking at the 12 month moving average, based on inflation adjustments... current is below, and has been for all of 2024.

Not sure where the good news, regarding growth... is to be found. Granted, it has not fallen off a cliff, but "real" growth is not to be found in this report, imho.

There were winners on the month and year, highlighted in green, with losers in red, with all numbers in nominal dollars (thousands).

Clearly, gasoline stations would show a nominal dollar drop, with decrease in pump prices. Food services and drinking places continues to increase.

My electricity bills over time (July, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The July bill came in much higher than last year. +23.8% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

The rolling average is down -4.8% from one year ago. However, I am not sure that will last, as it has been hot AND dry in my neck of the woods. 

Hopefully, a cool spell will ease into the forecast.