2024 Presidential Election Review, part 4 of 4 and conclusion

 It would appear the final counts for the election are now completed.

There were 1,963,624 fewer votes than in 2020, although still substantially higher than 2016.

At this point, most have moved on to projecting candidates for 2028, etc. I keep hearing about Harris, but cannot fathom how she could be perceived as a viable candidate, either for governor of California in 2026. or the 2028 presidential cycle.

It just does not compute in my head, how a "Californian" could so underperform Biden in California against Trump. There are other signs on the national level as well. 

However, a lot can change in a short time. The past 7 months is a strong indication of how much things can change.

[In any case, I will now move on from this election, and conclude this series of blogposts.]

Advance Retail Sales Report- December 17th, 2024

November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, the Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.75% annual, and down 0.05% on the month. 

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

There us an upward trend in inflation adjusted sales, but have not regained the level of January, 2023.

Pay close attention to the data, as 70% of that advance from last month was "auto and other motor veh. dealers."

The question is why such a sudden jump? Not that I am questioning the data, as it mirrors the recently released SAAR, which was also a sharp rise... which was unexpected. So what is causing these unexpected numbers?

While I will continue to track the Advance Retail Sales for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of Advance Retail Sales going forward]

PPI - Dec. 2024 release with Nov. 2024 Data

The BLS has released the November 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of October. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7 percent for the 12 months ended February 2023.

In November, nearly 60 percent of the broad-based rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent.  

As for the report card, it indicates inflationary pressures currently exist, with upward pressure into the future.

While the forecasts are not screaming rampant inflation, we should consider that we are currently at historical low points of monthly inflation... meaning the rate will pick up in the coming year, without the pending threat of tariffs.

[While I will continue to track the PPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of PPI going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 11th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -1.3¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -13.3¢, or -4.2%. Days supply rose to 25.5. For perspective... last year was 26.3 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -1.4M barrels; Distillates up +3.2M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +5.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -195K barrels, with the SPR rising +724K barrels.

The total products is still +17.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.41, to $17.11. Gasoline fell to $8.38, from last week's $8.73. Distillates slid to $8.72, compared to last week's $8.68.

The data sets for gasoline, continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -3.1¢ ~ +4.4¢. There does seem to be some upward movement in diesel.

We may be nearing the end of downward pressures on gasoline. Just have to wait and see.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - December 11th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings. 

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.25 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $385.99, up 43¢ from last month, after revisions...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.87. Up 2¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 332.45. Up 4¢ from last month, after revisions...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

[While I will continue to track the real earning report for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of real earnings going forward]

BLS Data Dump. CPI - December 11th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, after rising 0.2 percent in each of the previous 4 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in November, accounting for nearly forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.4 percent as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent. The energy index rose 0.2 percent over the month, after being unchanged in October.

The 2.749% is above last month's 2.598% is back above the 2.62% of March, 2021, and still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.  

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI stayed steady at 2.9% Y/Y, but rose +0.3% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

The current report card...

My concern going forward, is that several elements of the CPI are at seasonal norms, as in likely to head upward. The various forecasts, seem to agree.

[While I will continue to track the CPI for personal reasons, I will discontinue publications of CPI going forward]

This Week in Petroleum Summary December 4th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report.  

Gasoline pump prices slid -0.4¢ for the week, but continues below year ago levels, by -20.9¢, or -6.4%. Days supply rose to 24.5. For perspective... last year was 26.2 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude down -5.1M barrels; Distillates up +3.4M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +2.4M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slipped -3.3M barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +7.9M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread fell from last week's $17.96, to $17.41. Gasoline fell to $8.73, from last week's $8.76. Distillates slid to $8.68, compared to last week's $9.21.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days, within a narrow band, imo. -2.4¢ ~ +3.6¢. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.