2024 Presidential Election Update, October 19th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting back above the upper threshold of margin of error and Arizona easing back into that upper threshold. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 279 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 33, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 17 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 17 days to go.

Last week, I commented on the dems throwing everything including the kitchen sink, into the campaign. We are getting into ripping down drywall, and tearing out plumbing and wiring... at this point.

My electricity bills over time (October, 2024 Edition)

My electricity usage over time. I track many things to monitor my inflation versus the CPI.

The September bill came in much lower than last year. -8.3% from same month, last year. Granted, it is bill only, not adjusted for days in the reading, etc.

As for the rolling 12 month average...

It is down -2.5% from a year earlier. I'll take that and be happy.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 17th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -1.6¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -38.8¢, or -10.8%. Days supply fell to 23.6. For perspective... last year was 26.1 days. 

Inventories fell across the board , with crude down -2.2M barrels; Distillates down -3.5M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -2.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -6.1M barrels, with the SPR rising +952K barrels.

The total products is still +18.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.52, to $17.29. Gasoline rose to $8.75 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.54, compared to last week's $8.10.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.8¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now. 

Advance Retail Sales Report- October 17th, 2024

September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September Report. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $714.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from September 2023. Total sales for the July 2024 through September 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2024 to August 2024 percent change was unrevised from up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Note the numbers are not adjusted for inflation. Keep in mind, the BLS listed the annual inflation rate of 2.4% annual, and up 0.16% on the month.

First up, the revision history...

The historical numbers, also with adjustments for inflation...

Gasoline stations were the biggest losers, as would be expected with the fall in pump price. Also losing steam were home furnishings, electronics and appliances. Most other areas showed gains.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 12th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting below the upper threshold of margin of error. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 274 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 38, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 32 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 24 days to go.

While there has been fluctuations in Trump's EV count, there has been little movement in Harris'.

With 24 days to go, expect an even more hysterical campaign, if such a thing is impossible. It will be beyond everything but the kitchen sink... to multiple kitchen sinks, imho.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 10th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.29, down 40¢ from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.84. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.56. Up 42¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component.