Are We Heading Into A Recession?

Remember back when the 2022 1st and 2nd quarter GDP numbers came in... and those politically motivated types screamed "we are in a recession!"

We are about to undergo another episode of such nonsense, but from the opposite side of the political spectrum.

Hearkening back to that previous period of 2021/22, there were multiple factors that caused the inflation to accelerate into that annual high of 9.2% in June 2022. One of those factors was front loading of imports ahead of an impending West Coast port strike... planned for July 1, 2022. It didn't happen, but that front loading caused the trade deficit to balloon in the first 2 quarters of 2022.

Trade deficits are a drag on GDP. Interestingly enough, the adjustment from 2012 to 2017 dollars, resulted in significant revisions in those first 2 quarter of 2022. Subsequent revisions how has that 1st quarter of 2022 now at -1.0 from original -1.4 and the 2nd quarter now at +0.3, from the original -0.9.

On any given month, the trade deficit subracts about -4.3% from the GDP. During the 1st 2 quarters of 2020, the drag increased -5.2%. Hence the original 1st quarter would have been -0.5% revised to -0.1% and the 2nd quarter would have been flat, to a revised +1.2%. 

All of this to forewarn us the trade deficit has ballooned again. The February report... 

Yes, that is December and the reasoning is front loading to get ahead of possible tariffs. If that is true, which is likely, the January and February numbers could be even higher. 

Now much is made of that Atlanta FED forecast as now being -1.5% for 1st quarter GDP. The sky is falling, but what did the report actually say?

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

That's a -3.29% additional drag, due to extremely high imports. Without this, the GDP forecast would be about +2.2%.

All signs point to the next trade report, which is for January... could be even higher. That release is Thursday, March the 6th.

That Advance 2025 1st Quarter GDP will be released on April 30th.

I would think the data does not suggest we are heading into a recession, however... given the fickle nature of the American consumer and the extraordinary media bias, we will get one, whether we like it or not. 

A Few Thoughts and Opinions on Ukraine

It's the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. IF YOU IGNORE Crimea, 11 years ago to this very day. If memory serves me correctly, in the west, there was gnashing of teeth, squirming and statements of dismay. That was about the end of it.

It should be noted that some guy named Yanukovych was ousted on 2-22-2014, as president of Ukraine. He was pro-Russian and was ousted (coup) during something called the Maiden Revolution. He fled the country. The term "coup" is in dispute, although he was a democratically elected president... forced from office. Of course, the term "democratically elected" is also in dispute as to his election.

There is also, the potential for western dithering in such matters. 

Hence the seizure of Crimea and something else... a bitter dispute arose in an area called Donbas. The pro Russian folks in that area, rose up to combat Ukraine. This situation was fully supported by Russia.

With the current anniversary... a lot of news media attention. This has also brought up Zelensky's latest offer. Somehow the entirety of the offer has been sliced up and presented as "Zelensky's says he will resign, if it means peace". Quite a noble offer, except he also said Ukraine is to be admitted to NATO.

Clearly he has no plans to resign, nor allow elections... where he would likely lose. As for the NATO portion of his statement, it would require unanimous consent from the other NATO members. Russia would likely keep fighting, as Ukraine being in NATO is a big NO NO.

While it would be easy to expect the USA to block Ukraine's ascension into NATO, there are other countries that would have objections, such as Turkey.

One possible solution, is that the USA withdraws from NATO by January, 2029, with a phase down of USA troops in Europe during this period. 

There might even be a European peace keeping force in Ukraine, which would constitute the current borders of control. (cease fire in place)

This would appear to be a victory for Russia, with the USA leaving NATO, the real winner would be the USA, as Europe would be forced to dramatically pick up the pace of defense spending, etc. Which would allow Europe to keep Russia in check and the USA to focus on the Far East. 

For the record. When Russia slipped 30+ years ago, there was all sorts of talks about a peace dividend. I thought a withdrawal from NATO would have been appropriate. The only peace dividend seems to have been for Europe, of which they have squandered.

Producer Price Index and some other opinions

The Producer Price Index was released this morning and indicated an upturn.

Note that I did not revise the December, 2024 final demand, as did the BLS. Yes, December was revised upward to 3.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_01142025.htm

The nervous nellies will scream inflation is roaring back. Maybe so, but it will not repeat the horrors of 2021~2022. How can I say that? Once you understand the causes, the answer becomes easy.

• After the covid shutdown and collapse of international trade, the shipping industry was in disarray, with containers to move goods... in all the wrong places.
• Retailers had significantly reduced inventories to meet the slowing demand.
• There was a rather large stimulus paid to American citizens, on top of some previous payouts.
• The covid vaccine was becoming rapidly available.
• The American people were told that it was now safe to resume normal activities.
• An impending west coast port strike for mid 2022, which did not materialize.

Newly freed from fear Americans started immediately spending that stimulus money, which boosted retail sales by 10% in the first month.  The retailers, started ramping up orders significantly to restock the shelves, which exposed the problems with the shipping containers. This was compounded by retailers, pulling orders well ahead to heavily stock up... prior to the threatened west coast port strike. 

The shipping industry has finally recovered, the retail inventories have reached stability, and there are no strike threats on the horizon. There was consideration of a possible port strike on the east coast and gulf, which did increase orders, as well as impending tariff expectations, which also increased orders. 

The port strike is in the rear view mirror and the shipping industry sailed through it easily. The tariff question is still to be answered.

As a further note on retail sales... when adjusted for inflation, they have remained at that March, 2021 level. That will likely be the indicator of future demand... or lack thereof. 

Tariffs would likely weaken demand, so the expectation of massive inflation due to tariffs... not so much.

A Few Reports and some opinions... of course!

The CPI came out today and now that Trump is in office, it has suddenly turned terrible. Nevermind, it is for January, so remarkable for just 11 days in office. /s

The media's memory is a bit wacky, with claims that it has suddenly shifted upward, even though the lowest annual rate since February 2021 was this past September.

A trip down memory lane...

The real earnings report has been ignored and for good reason... weekly wages, when adjusted for inflation have now fallen back to June, 2024 levels. That's seven months, since weekly wages adjusted for inflation have been this low.

Note: The BLS reports both CPI and Real Earnings.

As for the energy report from the EIA, not much in extreme changes. Pump prices will likely rise, but should be noted... still below year ago levels. Of course, the rise will become political, as everything else.

Tariffs... A lot of talk about the damaging effects of tariffs, but the whole matter of FTZ status of dozens of companies have been ignored. A FTZ or "Foreign Trade Zone" status, means a company pays no tariffs, until the end product is sold to the public. There are many large and small companies with FTZs, which include energy companies (refineries, etc.) and automobile companies with their component assemblies. 

Once you understand the magnitude of FTZs, then you should consider that tariffs have long been in existence. 

Another serious argument put forth by many... is the Smoot Hawley act devastated the U.S. Economy during the depression, or at least made it worse. Not sure correlation was causation for this period. It does give the trade aficionados a talking point.

Yes, tariffs will cause inflation. However, off shoring of goods was a primary reason for the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. We basically beat inflation, by utilizing cheap foreign labor. We cannot hope to restore the middle class, without reshoring. 

It really is that simple. 

The Press has a dilemma.

Apparently, some of the left of center media people are noting that Trump tells what he thinks when answering their question.

The press is so used to the evasive non answers, that Trump speaking freely and off the cuff has them concerned.

Previously, the press were responsible for interpreting what the politician's doublespeak meant. Usually by citing some anonymous "source" while spouting endlessly on air. Which begs the question... are those sources real and/or are they honest.

Think about it, the news media has a much reduced role, or even need... in this environment. 

Those flashy press jobs don't look as important as those flashy media types have projected.  

1-31-2025 Week In Review

Energy

Crude inventory up a bit, with distillates down, and gasoline up. SPR up a bit. Price at the pump has barely budged and should continue in a narrow band.

Politics

It is the same old, same old. It was funny, but is now getting boring. Example: When there is a school shooting, we know what is said immediately by both sides. A plane crash provides us with the same dynamics, but in opposite polarization. 

Unfortunately, there is a history regarding this issue, dating back to the Obama presidency, which is in the courts since 2014 and is still not resolved, as of 1-29-2025.

BRIGIDA v. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

GDP

Annualized at 2.3%. Personal Consumption Expenditures were up dramatically.

While the 4th quarter jump in personal consumption expenditures is not entirely unheard of... I do wonder about the enormous jump in this past quarter and whether I am able to believe it... which I consider a bit shady. 

One possible explanation of this large jump is people buying ahead of potential tariffs. This is solely based on social media posts, which have people talking about buying stuff now, rather than later. Of course, these are social media posts, which are about as believable as... the GDP numbers.

Of course, if those posts are indicative, then the later buying will not take place and personal consumption expenditures will slow considerably in 1Q2025. Of course, politics will come into sharp view. Or rather sharper view.

PCE Report

Considering the target is 2.0%, The FED is okay with a number above that, as they left rates unchanged. Clearly there is concern for inflation, but there are some troubling signs... regarding the economy.

The Snow has almost melted.

Almost, as it has been 27 days and the temps are expected to be near 60 for a couple of days, and above freezing til the 9th.

End of the line

I am getting so bored with the current news cycle. I think it is time to simply blog, when there is something of interest.

Also, I have had adsense running and think it is time to remove adsense from this blog. I am the only person interested, so it makes more sense to cut adsense. My reasons for adsense were mostly to understand the audience, but since there isn't any... there you go. Besides, there never was any meaningful knowledge to gain, that was not already present under stats. 

Also, I always checked from my home screen and never really looked at the end product on line. I recently checked and clearly, I do not know how to properly place ads. It is rather embarrassing.

Adios!

1-24-2025 Week In Review

Current Rage...

I probably should stop watching UK's Sky News. I was watching it during the swearing in and their announcer said something that just hit me the very, very wrong way. For the record, it was not something derogatory about Trump, which is typical of this outfit, while ignoring anything negative about you know who. 

When did it start...

I am not a historical scholar and would not suggest that political rancor never existed. However, the "butthurt" of losing parties seems to have dialed up in my lifetime. Actually, I would suggest it started with the election of Clinton. 

There was a lot of rumors, etc. during his tenure. With the 2000 election, the opposite party seemed to have some butthurt. The election of Obama gave us the "tea party" and then there was the first term of Trump. Biden followed and now with Trump again. 

Both sides seem to have developed severe cases of "butthurt", imo. I don't see it ending any time soon, either.

Misinformation abounds in unlikely places.

"FBI" agent that took down Capone. That was in a crossword puzzle. Ness was a Prohibition Bureau agent, and the FBI was not in place until 1935, although it was preceded by the Bureau of Investigation. The Prohibition Bureau was originally in the Treasury and absorbed by the BOI (Justice) in early 1933. Late 1933, saw it returned to the Treasury and eventually became the ATF of today.

Make up your damn  minds...

The media kept saying all he does is lie, lie, and lie. Now they are complaining because he actually told the truth. Make up your damn minds... or at least stop losing your minds.

ENERGY

A lot of racket, but no serious movement, imho. Pump prices are set to slightly rise, for both gasoline and diesel. There was a lot of talk about a "draw", which did bring down the total about 3.9M barrels, but the total is still 24.2M barrels ahead of last year on this date.

Birthright citizenship...

Remember this... "so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here."

United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898) Chinese persons, born out of the United States, remaining subjects of the Emperor of China, and not having become citizens of the United States, are entitled to the protection of, and owe allegiance to, the United States so long as they are permitted by the United States to reside here, and are " subject to the jurisdiction thereof" in the same sense as all other aliens residing in the United States.

If you can't understand that part, then you may be shocked with the final outcome of this. The recent judge's ruling is merely the first salvo, imo.

Weather

Finally, the temps are set to moderate, which means above freezing. Maybe it will last long enough for all this snow to melt. 

That's all for this round.