2024 Presidential Election Update, October 12th Edition

The EV projection shifted this week, due to North Carolina shifting below the upper threshold of margin of error. The electoral vote forecast has Trump/Vance with 274 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 38, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 32 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 24 days to go.

While there has been fluctuations in Trump's EV count, there has been little movement in Harris'.

With 24 days to go, expect an even more hysterical campaign, if such a thing is impossible. It will be beyond everything but the kitchen sink... to multiple kitchen sinks, imho.

PPI October 2024 release with September 2024 Data

The BLS has released the October 2024 Producer Price Index Report for the month of September. (historical releases)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The outlook going forward, is somewhat optimistic, as no noticeable jumps seem to be taking place.

BLS Data Dump. Real Earnings - October 10th, 2024

On to the Real Earnings.

Harkening back to February 2020, when the real hourly rate was $11.02, that rate is now $11.24 for hourly- private non farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted...  

Whereas real  weekly earnings for that same cohort has moved from $378.92 to $384.29, down 40¢ from last month...

For the real hourly earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory of $9.49 in February 2020, is now $9.84. Up 1¢ from last month's report...

The real weekly earnings for this group moved from $319.90, to 331.56. Up 42¢ from last month...

All the above data is based directly on the CPI-U to get the "real" component. 

BLS Data Dump. CPI - October 10th, 2024

First up is the BLS Report for CPI...(historical releases)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index increased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The energy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month. 

The 2.44% is below the 2.62% of March, 2021, but still above the 1.68% of February, 2021.

Here is the unadjusted CPI for the past 12 months...

My own personal CPI rose 2.8% Y/Y, but rose +0.2% on the month (I'm not thrilled, but still a bit happy with that) ...

Taking a look at the current report card...

The COLA is 2.5%, for 2025.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 9th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices rose +0.9¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -49.9¢, or -13.5%. Days supply fell to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 26.8 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +5.8M barrels; Distillates down -3.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks fell -6.2M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -7.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +12.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $15.70, to $16.52. Gasoline steady to $8.42 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $8.10, compared to last week's $7.83.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -3.2¢ ~ +3.0¢. Take your pick. 

This coming week... only time will tell.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 5th Edition

The race seems to be shifting, with the electoral vote forecast having Trump/Vance with 290 to 226 for Harris/Walz. The toss-ups are now at 22, with a sliver of an edge still favoring Trump at 16 and Harris at 6. Thus, Trump at 306 and Harris at 232. 270 is needed to win. 31 days to go. 

State by state...

• Arizona, moving towards Trump
• Georgia, very slim in favor of Trump
• Michigan, easing towards Trump
• Minnesota, solid for Harris
• New Hampshire, sold for Harris
• Nevada, Harris leading and building a lead
• North Carolina, favoring Trump
• Pennsylvania, slim in favor of Trump
• Virginia, solid for Harris
• Wisconsin, seemingly favoring Trump 

The race is really to close to call, but there is some evidence the Harris campaign is facing headwinds.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 2nd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.17¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -61.8¢, or -16.2%. Days supply jumped to 25.3. For perspective... last year was 27.2 days.

Inventories were mixed , with crude increasing +3.9M barrels; Distillates down -1.3M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +1.1M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR slid -249K barrels, with the SPR rising +680K barrels.

The total products is still +26.7M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $16.22, to $15.70. Gasoline down to $7.87 from last week's $8.42. Distillates to $7.83, compared to last week's $7.80.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -7.5¢ ~ 2.5¢. Take your pick. However, if Iranian petroleum infrastructure were to be somehow hampered... all bets are off, imho.

This coming week... only time will tell.