It's Been Awhile

Finally some more reports coming out from the government services, with PPI and Retail Sales. Granted it is still a month behind, as October data should be out. 

Inflation did edge up in September on the CPI and PPI. Real Earnings were recently released as well. The latter slipped down a bit, with the exception on weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory.

Retails sales edged up before inflation adjustments, which let it slip a bit.

Looking inside the numbers, it would appear "Brick and Mortar" department stores continue to slide, as well as those companies that sell brick and mortar...building supplies etc. It would also appear the hobbies are taking a hit as well... sporting goods, etc.

Week Ending Report-August 16th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

CPI

Real earnings

Petroleum

Producer Price Index

Retail Sales

The inflation report was rather benign and met expectations. The oddity was in the CPI-W, which directly relates to C.O.L.A. It was a mild 2.5% y/y. The previous projection was a 2.6%~2.7% cola, which now moves a bit down to 2.5%~2.7%.

The Real Earnings moved up and is +1.2% above one year ago. As this is inflation adjusted, the earnings are +3.7% above one year ago.

The petroleum report shows an increase in both crude and distillate supplies. Gasoline supply edged a shade lower.

Produce Price Index was rather ugly, with a substantial jump across the board. Just as last month's PPI foreshadowed a benign July CPI... August will be a wake up call, imo. On top of that, the forecast for PPI is even higher... going forward.

I am not exactly happy, as my current CPI is 3.0% and possibly climbing, with COLA far behind.

The current status of the report card...

Advance Retail Sales

Not a bad report on the surface.

OPINION time:

In a previous post I questioned the accuracy of some government reports. The retail sales would be one example. The issue being with revisions. Below is a snapshot of cumulative revisions of advance sales going back about 2 1/2 years. Revisions are not unheard of, but the pattern is suggestive of something being off. 

The pattern HAD been the previous couple of months being revised downward, which inevitably shows a brighter current report. This had been almost a monthly occurrence, of the past couple of years. Now it should be noted that historically, April has been an across the board revision of everything.

Going forward, it will be interesting to observe if the revision pattern continues, although the monthly pattern has broken towards upward revisions for previous month's data, which would suppress the joy of a current report. It does seem suspicious, imho.

While the overall picture seems okay, with the exception of the PPI... a glimmer of hope seems to be in the PPI being a month blip, as following forecasts indicate flat to negative.

Week Ending Report-August 9th, 2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

Trade Report

Petroleum Report

The international trade numbers are self explanatory in the linked report.

As for the petroleum report, usage of gasoline continues to drift downward, with pump prices in a narrow range. 

There is the potential for a hurricane in the next couple of weeks, but it is largely forecast to be near the east coast and not the gulf coast, or whatever you want to call it.

OPINION time:

Barely any movement in inflation expectations, although a slight move upward from now into the 4th quarter is in the offing. 

3rd Qtr. GDP projections remain positive, although barely, with 4th quarter in the same range and an uptick by first of year.

I guess if I were a president of a country at war and had suspended elections, knowing I wouldn't be re-elected... I would likely resist any form of peace, even if my citizens continued to die. Especially if the fighting was supported with foreign tax dollars... whether directly or through military munitions.

Week Ending Report-8-02-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

GDP

Personal Income and Outlays

Weekly Crude Oil Report

The GDP exceeded forecasts, but not really by that much. It was just as much about the trade and services deficit, as was the first quarter negative. 

Personal Income and outlays was mostly positive. Here is the July Report card, which includes several variables.

A lot of pink, which is inflation heating up, but oddly... the PPI seems to be slipping. So maybe inflation is cooling. 

Also, of note... the report card was not updated to PCE revisions for prior months.

Here is the latest...

Here was previous month, with revisions highlighted...

There are always some revisions of Government numbers, but the past few years have been quite noticeable, imo. More on my opinion later.

The petroleum report continues to astound me, as U.S. consumption is well below last year.

OPINION time:

The firing of a government official in charge of employment numbers caused great gnashing of teeth. I have a different view than some of the current pundits. 

Those employment numbers have been suspect for some time. The past few years have seen monthly reports heralding better than expected hiring, with hardly any mention of prior months downward revisions. 

The aforementioned was a near monthly occurrence, with even a massive one time downward revision for several months prior... again without media comment. It was very hard to ignore the possibility of political intervention. And if not political intervention... then very lackluster data collection, of which improvement is much needed.

I should probably mention that many reports from the government are in constant revision stage. Contrary to public opinion... I consider the inflation reports to be the most accurate and reliable. The employment numbers being the least reliable. The rest fall in between those two, imo.

Week Ending Report-7-26-2025

A few reports of interest (to me), from this past week.

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php 

Much was made of the -9.3% drop in Durable Goods from May, but the spin doctors overlooked the +16.5% rise for the previous month. Year to date from 2024, is up 7.9%. Probably why the spin didn't last very long. 

As for the petroleum sector, gasoline usage has fallen considerably on a 4 week moving average. Down -5.2% from year ago levels and -2.9% from last week. The inventory of gasoline slipped a bit, but the day's supply is increasing. 

Probably why pump prices are staying stagnant, compared to my last forecast. Not sure why the drop, which could be indicative of a slowing economy, although much of that data is contradictory. 

In any case, the sharp drop off is unexpected, at least to me.

Some meaningless thoughts...

The Late Show... I stopped watching the late show, early on in Colbert's tenure. His brand of humor did not match mine. Why the show is being canceled is beyond my realm of thought. Even if it were, I am not part of that important demographic.

Epstein files... I would have thought any Trump connections would have been exposed during his last term. Certainly during the Biden years. Perhaps the whole darn bunch have their names listed on... some yet to be released "file".

Clinton Saga... I am not a fan, but she is largely irrelevant, imho. It is good to know that most of the political back in forth is now focusing on days gone by. Maybe we will eventually move past all of this.

Or is the political news cycle a couple of decades behind?

Week Ending Report-7-19-2025

Several reports from the week, including...

CPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm

PPI- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.htm

Real Earnings- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm

Advance Retail- https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Petroleum- https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php

A brief snapshot of CPI, CPI-W, CPI-E, PPI...

A lot of pink on everything, but the PPI, which seems to have flattened out. The PPI forecast is a bit of upward movement over the next couple of months, but then descending. 

The Cost of Living Adjustment outlook, has edged upward...

The real earnings report, indicated a slippage in real earnings. 

The retail sales remains fairly flat, when factoring in inflation...

On the petroleum side, it would appear diesel prices are set to accelerate higher, while gasoline appears to be edging slightly higher.

In reality, the big story should have been the downward projections of the PPI, in the face of tariffs. 

That's about it, as I have nothing more to say.

Pump Prices heading up!!

Reviewed this weeks EIA report and observed the current status of inventories. 

Oddly, although domestic consumption is down from last year, the past couple of weeks has shown an increase in that consumption.

Checking the futures market, refinery operating rates, etc., it would certainly appear that prices will continue that upward trend, with gasoline easily rising another 4¢~7¢ and diesel jumping 9¢+.