This Week in Petroleum Summary November 6th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.28¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -31.1¢, or -9.1%. Days supply rosel to 23.8. For perspective... last year was 24.1 days.

Inventories were up across the board , with crude up +1.1M barrels; Distillates up +2.9M barrels; Gasoline stocks up +412K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +263K barrels, with the SPR rising +1.4M barrels.

The total products is still +19.5M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread rose from last week's $16.62, to $17.00. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.44, from last week's $8.45. Distillates rose to $8.57, compared to last week's $8.17.

The data sets continue to diverge with price movement in the coming days. -0.9¢ ~ +3.5¢.

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

 

2024 Presidential Election Update, Final Edition?

The Electoral Vote count stands at 246 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 66 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 60, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

The under polling should be interesting to see, but that will come in after election analysis.

The previous 2 elections indicated significant under polling for Trump. Not sure how much is applicable to this election, as Trump has been polling much stronger. It there is a tendency for significant under polling towards Trump, then the possibility of him achieving the majority of the vote. 

Current polling suggests neither would achieve majority. 

It is razor thin and should be entertaining... the next couple of days, or possibly more.

 

2024 Presidential Election Update, November 2nd Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 235 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. There are 77 EVs in MoE territory, with the edge going to Trump in 71, leaving a potential for Trump having 306 EVs.

However, the shift since last week, has been closing the gap. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have fallen into MoE territory.

It will be a very long election night, stretching well into Wednesday, imo.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 30th, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -0.2¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -35.9¢, or -10.3%. Days supply fell to 23.3. For perspective... last year was 25.5 days. 

Inventories were down across the board , with crude down +515K barrels; Distillates down -977K barrels; Gasoline stocks down -2.7M barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +20.4M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.01, to $16.62. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.45 from last week's $8.74. Distillates to $8.17, compared to last week's $8.27.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -4.3¢ ~ +2.8¢. Take your pick. 

Still, just as the past few weeks... nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

2024 Presidential Election Update, October 26th Edition

The Electoral Vote count stands at 264 for Trump; and 226 for Harris. Arizona and Georgia are starting to lean heavier into Trump territory, which would put the count at 291.

What is interesting to me... is the national vote count. It appears a possibility that Trump might win a majority of that vote. 

Contrary to what some people might believe... a majority constitutes 50% plus 1 vote of total votes cast.

Going back to at least 1828, indicates that the person with the majority of votes always wins the election... except in 1876, when Rutherford B Hayes won the electoral vote with 47.92% of the vote against Samuel Tilden's 50.92%. 

Not sure either of this year's candidates will receive a majority of the vote, but the potential for Trump to gain the electoral vote and the majority... does exist.

This Week in Petroleum Summary October 23rd, 2024 per EIA.GOV

This week's full report. 

Gasoline pump prices fell -4.1¢ for the week, and continues well below year ago levels, by -39.4¢, or -11.1%. Days supply rose to 24.0. For perspective... last year was 26.0 days. 

Inventories were mixed , with crude up +5.5M barrels; Distillates down -1.1M barrels; Gasoline stocks rose +878K barrels. Total Petroleum + products +SPR rose +6.7M barrels, with the SPR rising +760K barrels.

The total products is still +25.6M barrels ahead of year ago levels.

For those interested, the exports of Crude, Petroleum Products, Including Gasoline has far outweighed the imports, by this much, since March, 2022.

The current crack spread slipped from last week's $17.29, to $17.01. Gasoline eased ever so slightly to $8.74 from last week's $8.75. Distillates to $8.27, compared to last week's $8.54.

One set of data indicates a further easing of pump prices, while another suggests nearing a bottom. Which is exactly what last week's data suggested, and the week prior, and the week prior, etc. This past week, did indicate both slight up and down movement in prices. -2.3¢ ~ +3.1¢. Take your pick. 

Still, nothing dramatic in the way of prices surging, or at least for now and should continue until the Christmas holiday, imo.

Comparison of Inflation in selected countries- October, 2024 Edition

With the United Kingdom, Canada, and EUstats release of June data, I have updated my comparison graph. [Note, the USA(EU method) is directly from Eurostat]

Looking at the same period of time, for USA, EU(27), UK, USA(using EU methodology), results in the following..

I suspect the USA number, might edge up in the upcoming month, but while I will continue to track, this should wrap up the blogging portion... or not.