The Commerce Department released the latest CPE information. This concludes the inflation information that I track... for the month of November. 5.7% PCE; PCE EX-F&E at 4.7% and trimmed mean PCE at 3.5%. All numbers are above October data.
There is really no surprise, and the latest numbers simply affirm what is already widely known, so has been rather mildly reported. Especially the relationship between PCE and the Federal Reserve's reliance on that information.
The FED has already mentioned what they might do, but haven't done anything, other than reducing bond buying... which is the key point.
As for me, the MPI is my gauge and I suspect it will go up for the December report to about 5.1% annual and 0.4% on the month.
Forecasts for CPI-U range from -0.3% to +0.4% for December and year to year between 6.7% and 7.1%. I suspect we are nearing the end of peak y/y numbers and should look closer at month to month in the upcoming reports.
OMICRON
Omicron is spreading very fast, according to news and data sites. While it appears to be much less severe than previous covid variants, the current CDC protocols for medical staff is quarantining for 7 days from testing positive from covid... any covid, mild or not. Considering how pervasive the omicron variant is, and the apparent weakness of vaccines and prior covid immunity are to the omicron variant, the likelihood of much higher infection rates exists. This would include the medical community.
As with any virus, certain portions of the population are more susceptible to serious illness and death and would require medical attention. Medical attention that might be restricted by its own members infections and requirement to quarantine.
The timing for getting sick and seeking medical attention might not be as good as current. Then think about all the various companies, schools, etc. that require testing and adhering to various protocols. Think about the grocery stores that look warily on employees sniffling and sneezing.
Just sayin..
No comments:
Post a Comment