Review of EIA Weekly Report for 7-27-2022

Another glorious week has passed and the Energy Information Administration has released their weekly report. Crude inventories are down 4.5M bbls from last week and gasoline is down 3.3M bbls. 

Gasoline consumption continues to fall, although the fall in pump prices may slow to a stop. We exported a walloping 1.183M bbls more than we imported. Crude and petroleum products also rose on the export side, compared to imports... by 18M bbls. Since March we have exported more than imported of gasoline... 18.2M bbls; crude and petroleum products...147M bbls. 

I am still not sure that demand destruction is taking place. The strong dollar did make U.S. gasoline for export a bit more pricey, but apparently the need has overcome the price, as exports reversed course. It may have been simply timing of ships, etc. In any case, the U.S. futures market for gasoline is on the rise and is approaching where the national average currently sits. (That's factoring in the typical margin between futures and pump.) Also, the dollar has weakened a bit the past few days, as well.

On to the natural gas stuff...

In previous posts, I had mentioned U.K. and EU, but today... should focus more on things closer to home. I don't use Natural Gas, although probably some or most of my electricity comes from Natural gas powered power plants. Also, I probably use materials, foods, etc. that may have varying amounts of natural gas power, as part of the production and/or processing.

Which is a round about way of saying... I don't have a clue. I would suggest the price of natural gas may be in the neighborhood of 35% of a natural gas bill. Obviously, large users probably get a bit of discount on the remaining 65%. The average residential customer could expect a $7 rise in their bill for every dollar the overall price rises. 

So there is likely a price hike coming your way... and you might not like it, nor the size of it. If and when that liquefaction facility comes fully back on line... the N/G price might well top $10. I guess I am saying that less than $4@MBTU bills of last winter should not be thrown away. You might need to burn them this winter to stay warm.