Breakdown of CPI DATA and Real Earnings, August 2022

It is that time of month, to survey the damage from inflation. The BLS report was released this morning and it was a surprise. (historical releases)

This is what I projected for the month...

Now for next month's CPI-U, and here's hoping I am once again overshooting... month over month at 0.0%~0.2% and year to year of 8.3% to 8.5%. 

Well, it was... 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. 

Gasoline fell much, much further than last month and failed to provide cover for all the other areas, which are inflating. 

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Unadjusted remains sort of flat. Meanwhile my personal inflation rate edged up to 7.9%, with a +0.26% month to month increase. 

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On to the C.O.L.A. ... The CPI-W slid -0.2% for the month, which essentially narrowed the range for C.O.L.A. adjustments.

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Frankly speaking and after checking my pencil for an eraser... I'll pencil in 8.7% as the most likely C.O.L.A. The September CPI-W has a very wide range, as can be seen. Either side of the 8.7% figure is also a rather wide range.

As for the Real Earnings...

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The hourly is edging up slightly, but still below February 2020 rate.

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The weekly level slipped this month (all inflation adjusted) and is still below the February 2020 level.

For next month's projection, another wide range... 7-8%~8.3%, with month to month of -0.1~ up to 0.3%. The drop in gasoline failed to cover all the other areas, and the drop in gasoline for September will be much smaller, in my opinion. 

I guess what I am saying is... there could easily be another upside surprise, when the September numbers come out. I sincerely hope not. It has nothing to do with stocks, Federal Reserve or Macro Economics. I am just a poor schmuck getting squeezed.