Breakdown of the CPI DATA and Real Earnings reports for September 2022

It is that time of month, to survey the damage from inflation. The BLS report was released this morning and it was a surprise. (historical releases)

This is what I projected for the month...

For next month's projection, another wide range... 7-8%~8.3%, with month to month of -0.1~ up to 0.3%. The drop in gasoline failed to cover all the other areas, and the drop in gasoline for September will be much smaller, in my opinion.

Hmm... 

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

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My own personal CPI was 8.1% year over year and up 0.3% from last month.

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The C.O.L.A. for 2023 is set at 8.7%...

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Last month I had stated the likelihood of 8.7%, but then got antsy an edged up the forecast to 8.8%. I really did not anticipate the CPI-W would underperform, compared to the CPI-U. That string since the start of covid has apparently ended. In any case, it almost was 8.8%, as pushing out a couple of digits was 8.746%. That 291.854 was just off the 291.879 to edge it to 8.750% and rounding to 8.8%. 

That was me trying to justify my errors. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. 

As for the Real Earnings ...

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It still has not gotten back to pre-covid purchasing power and slipped last month. Of course that is for hourly workers, while the earnings for production and non supervisory employees was actually up $.03 hourly, from pre-covid and $3.68 weekly. So, the working stiffs are healing faster.

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Real earnings are already adjusted for inflation.

And an apples to apples comparison can also be made as unemployment now matches February 2020.

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We should remember Covid hit the lower wage earners the hardest, as they were originally deemed non-essential and sent home, thus distorting the hourly and weekly rate. The higher wage earners were able to "work from home" while masturbating on zoom calls, etc. Until they realized that some of those non essentials were actually a bit more essential than first thought.

In any case, a fair apples to apples is now compared to February 2020. At least that is my opinion.

Seemed like I was going to mention petroleum. Crude Oil inventory up nearly 10M barrels, with Gasoline up 2M barrels, and uh oh... distillates down 4.8M barrels. Natural Gas inventories are starting to gain ground as well.

Tomorrow is the retail report, which should be interesting.

Oh yeah... next month CPI at 8.1%~8.2%, with m/m of +0.8%.