Incomplete Data and Hyperbole!!

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2022, this morning..

I have highlighted the adjustments from last month's release. 

You can scroll down on each month's release to examine the adjustments. It is not uncommon to have these revisions, as they are estimates and with the arrival of more data, the estimates can be further refined. Sometimes, this can result in adjustments going back a few month, as indicated by the numbers underlined in red.

In other words... the estimate is based on incomplete data. What astounds me, is the hyperbole surrounding this single report, or any other, as some signal from God... that some FED reversal is imminent. 6.0% is triple a target of 2.0%. At least it used to be, in the days before FTX.

Yes, I understand the one month PCE ex F&E was 2.7% annualized. This past July, saw that figure at 0.8% annualized. So hush! The FED probably uses a lot of data points, as well as one of those magic eight balls.

Overall inflation rates are improving across the board and it is not impossible that a more normal rate of inflation could be upon us by next summer, based on current progression. However, is that due to recessionary pressures, Federal Reserve actions, global intrigue... or any combination? 

I dunno!