Gasoline consumption through week of Feb-24-2023

Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down 3.8¢ this week, to $3.359. A year ago, the price was $3.619. 

The streak for lower prices ended yesterday and quite possibly for the season. 

The seasonal consumption is edging up. (This is a four week moving average). It is +0.5% above one year ago levels. However, the national average pump price is -7.1% below same period.

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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +90M barrels. If you saw last week's report, that is down, as imports outnumbered exports... obviously. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.

Where will pump prices be next week? My inclination would be a rise of about 8¢ per gallon. Hopefully, I am wrong. I am basing this on the following...

• Refinery utilization is flat and below last year.
• Consumption is increasing above last year's levels
• Gasoline is a global commodity and the dollar is slipping a tad, making U.S. gasoline prices more attractive.
• Crude prices, across the board are starting to edge up.

But seriously, what do I know?