Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were up 6.7¢ this week, to $3.528. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.176. I projected a 4.5¢ increase, and wish it hadn't happened.
The consumption edged up a healthy +1.4% from last week, and jumped 3.3% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).
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If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +99.5M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.
Where will pump prices be next week? Last week, I forecast a +4.5¢ increase and got a +6.7¢ rise. I hope my inability to accurately predict prices remains opposite of what takes place. At least for the coming week.
So, it looks like a +12.5¢ increase at the pump. Here's hoping I am wrong.
Normally, consumption eases during this current period, but warmer than seasonal weather must be enticing those with cabin fever... to drive.
Will the national average get to $5? I really want to say no, but with gasoline inventory below this time last year, consumption above this time last year, and refinery output below this time last year... It is hard to build a case against $5 gasoline.
We have to cross the $4 threshold and that will likely happen sometime near the first of May. That is just me guessing and pulling a date out of thin air.
I drive less that 1,000 miles a year, so don't even know why I watch this stuff so closely.
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