Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were up 6.3¢ this week, to $3.684. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.101. I projected a 12.4¢ increase, and didn't get it. Hooray! Not a bad thing.
The consumption edged up a healthy +0.4% from last week, and jumped 7.1% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).
If you are really into this type of thing... the import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +101M barrels. This is a global market, so the global economy, as well as refinery output, is key to where pump prices will be.
Where will pump prices be next week? Last week, I forecast a +12.4¢ increase and got a +6.3¢ rise. I hope the reality is still less than my expectations.
EDITED APR-21-2023, SEE BELOW. So, it looks like a +5¢ increase at the pump. Here's hoping I am wrong again and the increase is less than half that, or maybe even lower!!
As for the outlook of $4 per gallon at the pump nationally... maybe by Memorial Day weekend, or the week preceding.
In any case, the national average has to rise, given the Gasoline Reid Vapor Pressure change. The outlook for the national average through the summer, is nowhere near $5.
EDIT: THE +5¢ PROJECTED, IS NOW FLAT TO -5¢ FOR THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.
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