5-16-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for April

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2023.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $686.1 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2022. Total sales for the February 2023 through April 2023 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2023 to March 2023 percent change was revised from down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to down 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from March 2023, and up 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent)* above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent (±2.5 percent) from April 2022.

As always, these figures are not adjusted for inflation, so +1.6% above year ago levels, when inflation adjusted comes down to something like -3.2%.

Now for those revisions. Yes, April was up 0.4% from previous month, which was revised from -0.6% to -0.7%. Doesn't seem bad, until you look at the previous month's revisions.

The revisions for January, February, March were sizable. So after those sizable revisions... you do end up with -0.7% for the previous month. 

We seem to be on a trend of downward revisions, and then extolling the current report. I suspect this month will be revised downward for next month... so next month can seem like a positive. 

So, I do not have a positive spin on this report.

As has been the case for several months, the "quantity" has remained stagnant, while spending increases. 

Adjusting for inflation, the actual volume of sales has remained rather flat for the past two years. 

There were winners and losers, but the revisions really distorted previous lists of winners and losers... such that I cannot attempt a realistic review. (Mostly laziness)!