Gasoline prices were (per AAA) were down -6.0¢ this week, to $3.586. A year ago, the price had ballooned to $4.204. I eventually projected a -5.6¢ decrease, then backed off. However, it is going the right direction and appears to trending even lower.
The consumption slipped -0.9% from last week, and stands 2.0% above year ago numbers. (This is a four week moving average).
The import/export surplus of gasoline since last March 1st 2022, stands at +99.3M barrels. The import/export numbers have really not changed that much over the past few weeks.
Where will pump prices be next week? Last week, I originally forecast a -5.6¢ decrease and got a -6.0¢ drop. I hope this continues, and evidence suggests it will.
How much... maybe another -10.2¢ at the pump. Probably won't get that, but it has been dropping faster than I anticipated, so hope it will continue and I decided to aim lower. Gotta hope!!
Barring some global catastrophe, major weather related issues, unplanned refinery outages, or pipeline problems... the USA pump price average should NOT get to $4 this year.
So... something is likely to happen, to mess up things.
No comments:
Post a Comment