Another month to review (with some comments at the end)...
The following looks good, except....
The outlook for core is actually higher than the total inflation. Which means food and energy are the main drivers of overall lower inflation. Sounds good, except it really isn't food as much as energy. Energy crested in June of last year and then quickly slid... going into September.
Just saying, the falling overall inflation numbers may come to an abrupt halt in the fall.
Now for the adjustments...
Now for the GDP...
The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending.
I highlighted my area of concern. Note the statement of upward revision in consumer spending, then review the PCE expenditures directly above. January was good and presumably the revision upward in February would match up with the quoted statement.
However, April was revised up a mere +0.2 from original flat and May is also flat.
So where is the growth coming from in the 2nd quarter?
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