8-15-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for July

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, July 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $696.4 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2022. Total sales for the May 2023 through July 2023 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2023 to June 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2023, and up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.3 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 11.9 percent (±2.3 percent) from July 2022.

The "but not for price changes, means not adjusted for inflation... 

While improved over last month by 0.5% when adjusted for inflation... year to year is flat.

In a previous column, I made mention of the Census Bureau's propensity to revise downward previous month's data to improve current month results. We are in the second month of previous month's data being revised upward... which is good news. May that become a trend going forward.

Non store retailers, continues to lead the pack, with Furniture and Electronics turning negative from last month. Clothing edged up from last month, with Food Services and drinking places accelerating.

What really stands out is the EX gasoline category, which rose 5.8% year over year, which is better than the CPI EX gasoline of 4.3%.

Room for optimism!