The BLS report was released this morning and it was at consensus estimates. (historical releases)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
The rates on the graph, averaged 3.5% during that 75 year period. The past ten years averaged 2.7%, and the 10 year pre-covid rate was 1.7%. The 21st century average is 2.5%. Pick your normal.
While last month's 3.0% and this month's 3.2% are below the 75 year average, not exactly better than either of the 10 year marks, nor the 21st century average.
The past 28 months have seen food at home risen 20.4% (8.74% annualized), and the overall CPI up... 16.9% (7.24% annualized).
That is something very fresh in the minds of many Americans.
In the absolutely to early to project something, but I can't help myself category... the current outlook for C.O.L.A.
So far this month...
Time for some more graphs...
It should be noted, the July, 22 ~ December, 22 period was nearly flat. Since then, the rate of inflation has had an upward trajectory.
My personal CPI rate is better than expected. but still not pleasing to me.
There seems to be some euphoria over today's report, which seems to be based on inflation matching consensus expectations, although a bit higher than next month.
Which brings me to expectations for the current month. Nearly everything I've read indicates a higher print for next month. I haven't read any consensus expectations, but the range is much higher. With energy prices jumping upward, as well as food prices... core will need to slow down to bring the August numbers within range of July, imho.
No comments:
Post a Comment