10-17-23, Advance Retail Sales Report for September Data

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2023. 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2022. Total sales for the July 2023 through September 2023 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The July 2023 to August 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.1 percent).

Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2023, and up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 8.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 9.2 percent (±2.3 percent) from September 2022.

As always, a reminder... "not for price changes", means not adjusted for inflation.

The term "resilient" continues to be overused, when clearly the actual "stuff" being bought is rather stagnant. 

That's not to say that last month's data was not an improvement, as both month to month and year over year were up... after adjusting for inflation. However, a rolling 12 month average indicates slippage of -0.1%, when adjusted for inflation.

That includes last September, which got revised downward... ever so slightly.

It should be noted, that today's report is +1.8% above January in current dollars, yet -1.1% when inflation adjusted. THAT is after all the revisions to January. Which begs the question... what will next month's backward revisions be.

You won't hear about it, as the mantra... "if it can't be spinned positively, ignore it." I am not saying the Census Bureau minions are at work here, but politicians and their friendly media darlings do.

I will continue to monitor thee monthly reports, however this is the last in this series.