I can't resist the notion of commenting on the 2024 Presidential election.
First off, I fully expect democrats to vote democrat and republicans to voter republican... regardless of the candidates nominated.
The independents seem to matter most... in these elections.
One thing that might be overlooked, is that polls the past two presidential elections were off. Everyone knows that, but the oddity... the polls seem to overstate the democrat candidate and understate the republican candidate.
You can check, but this is across all states, as well as nationally.
Here is a sampling from 2020...
So when claiming polls are incorrect... you are right, but maybe not in the direction you would hope.
A bit of history...
In 2016, the election was up for grabs in so called battleground states.
The most often mentioned states, were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That would be rightfully so, as they were supposed to be blue, yet somehow turned red, along with their 46 Evs. If they had been flipped, then Clinton would have been elected.
Those 3 were supposed to be safe states, yet became "battleground" as the 2016 election approached. Michigan and Pennsylvania last voted republican in 1988. Wisconsin in 1984.
A mere 77,736 combined votes was the difference in that election.
On to 2020...
The surprises here were Georgia (16); Arizona (11). Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flipped back to Blue. 72 electoral votes in those 5 states. 22,236 votes in Georgia and Arizona, then add in Michigan's 154,181; Pennsylvania's 82,166 and Wisconsin's 20,682 for a total of 279,265.
Georgia was reliably republican since 1996. Now they are in the battleground group as well.
Of note, Wisconsin's 20,682; Arizona's 10,457; Georgia's 11,779, would have really knotted up things if voting the other way. 269~269. That would have been interesting. 42,918 voters decided the presidential election.
Now for 2024...
I'm keeping the same set of battleground states, although why states such as Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia keep cropping up, remain a mystery.
Obviously, this is based on current state polling, where available. I deem Colorado and Virginia as being blue, without further research. Ohio and Iowa are certainly Red, without further research.
Trump leads in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina... above all margins of error.
While the Michigan numbers seem to indicate a wide margin in favor of Trump, I would question that... based on recent events. Sure, a certain group is screaming at Biden, but favoring Trump in a meaningless poll, may not translate to the voting booth. The potential does exist of that group staying home on election day. They may be upset with Biden, but I refuse to believe they would vote for Trump.
Basically, 46 EVs are trending towards Trump, but within that statistical margin of error. That puts Trump currently polling 263 Evs outright, versus 229 for Biden.
This is what has the Democrats running scared and also... keeping Trump in the race.
What is peculiar, is when Haley is thrown into a head to head match up, those within margin states becomes much wider. The Trump camp, will not like that, but the devil is in the details. Yet, Trump crushes Haley in primaries.
It would appear to this completely untrained eye, that Democrats desperately need Trump to be the Republican nominee. The Trumpers are clearly more interested in Trump being president, than a republican being president.
I guess you could say the democrats and trumpers are united in discouraging any other republican candidate.
Of course, the republicans are united in removing Biden and... it should be noted, that certain democrats are kinda wishing and hoping Biden would step aside.
(See... it is not all divisive politics!) 😉
Of course, things might improve and the storm weathered. Which is what it boils down to, as there is NO ONE in the democrat wings that can realistically step up.
You know its not Harris, and you might be delusional... if you think Newsom.
My blurb from March still largely holds true.
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