A Foray into the 2024 Presidential Election, Part Four

Here I go again, delving into the rabbit hole of politics and polls.

The polls are wrong, as we all know. 

In 2016, Clinton was leading Trump in Wisconsin by 5 points, yet lost the state.

In 2020, Biden turned it around and led by 9 points in the polls, yet barely won the state by 20,000 votes or 0.6%

Granted Clinton only had a 2 point lead in Michigan, ahead of the election and lost by a slim margin. Once Again, Biden turned it around by having a 9 point margin, before finishing 2.8% ahead.

In 2016 Clinton had a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania, before losing that state. Again Bided turned it around with a 5 point lead, and winning by a slim 1.2%. A win is a win.

Florida was a deadlock and then the election of 2016 had Trump up by a slim 0.8%. Biden had a 3 point lead in Florida for 2020, yet Trump won by 3.3%.

Again in 2020, Biden had a 1 point lead in Texas, and it was widely assumed Texas was turning blue, except Trump won by 5.5%. It was tighter than 2016, so maybe turning blue, but not just yet.

Of course some states matched the poll numbers, such as Georgia. Almost nailed it in 2016 and 2020. 

Arizona was near that match for both years, as was Nevada and some others.

I suppose there are many reasons, such as 3rd party candidates, undecided voters, no shows, etc.

So having gone down the rabbit hole of reviewing the 2016 AND 2020 polls by state... I have come up with my own darn formula.

Yes, you saw that right. Trump has an edge at this point in time. Biden needs to focus on the slights and get them back in the fold...

Amazing that Minnesota is in the mix, but the indications are there. Then there are the marginals for Trump...

Biden needs to swing 27 Evs back from these. Any two will do, So along with Arizona, Minnesota and Nevada... 2 more.

Remember Arizona and Nevada seem to match polls with election results. So does Georgia.

Not that a swing back couldn't be accomplished, but most of these states have polled poorly for democrats, when compared to general election.

That took up way too much of my time, so that's it for now.