Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, December Report.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022. Total sales for the October 2023 through December 2023 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2023 to November 2023 percent change was unrevised from up 0.3 percent (±0.3 percent)*.
Hmmm... "Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022." The BLS listed that same period as having inflation of 3.4%. Which means the seasonal variation and trading-day differences have come into the equation. Otherwise, sales were up a bit more than indicated, imho.
First up the revisions...
We continue a pattern of previous months being revised downward, so the monthly changes are somewhat suspect.
When adjusted for inflation, the annual shows an improvement of +2.2%. The January numbers will be quite interesting, imho. The January report, adjusted for inflation, is slightly above the December number with inflation adjustements. Revisions will likely take place. 😒
The inflation adjusted chart looks like this...
The quantity of goods has not yet matched the highs of both March and April of 2021 and 2022. It will be interesting to see if a seasonal repeat is in store for early spring.
Mail order, vehicles and general merchandise led the way, with $4.305M of the $3.909M increase. That means there were some losers. Gasoline was down -$691M. The rest were slightly above or slightly below.
Seasonal factors likely drove the mail order and general merchandise, so can't reasonably expect a repeat in January. Gasoline currently remains relatively flat, compared to December.
Like I said... the revisions for January's report should be very interesting.
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